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标普全球:2026汽车行业展望:重大转型-重塑全球汽车产业发展路线图(中译版)(12页).pdf

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1、Automotive Industry OutlookThe Great Pivot:Rethinking the Roadmap for Global AutosMike WallExecutive Director,Automotive Analysis+1 248 728 8400 Direct+1 616 446 6885 MobileMike.W S&P Global MobilityApril 20262For customers across the automotive landscapefrom manufacturers and suppliers to dealershi

2、ps and service shopswe share a complete perspective of the mobility industry.S&P Global Mobility covers the entire vehicle lifecycleUnderstand the historical market trends to enable you to forecast the future and evaluate your investment opportunitiesVehicle DemandVehicle ProductionTechnologySustain

3、able mobilityAnalyse actual market developments as they happen and market to the right audience so you can remain competitiveMarketing ActivationSales OptimizationIndustry PerformanceDeliver critical information to support aftermarket services and vehicle recalls where necessaryParts Demand&FitmentO

4、wner NotificationVehicle IdentificationForecasting&PlanningSales Performance&MarketingVehicle in UseS&P Global Mobility3How the Middle East Conflict&Strait of Hormuz Transit Impacts Vehicle Markets Economico Regional and global impacts of increased oil,LNG and specialty fuel costs due to short suppl

5、yo Secondary impacts of rising fuel,logistics,dwell time,insurance/risk premiums etc.are born/passed along to suppliers and eventually,end consumers.o Central banks suspend/slow interest rate reductions to guard against fueling already rising inflation driven by fuel and other input costs.o Declinin

6、g equity markets impacts the wealth effect and reduces consumer confidence/economic activity Vehicle Demando Vehicle demand is impacted dependent upon regional fuel price increases and secondary inflation hikes.Consumers potentially delay/suspend purchases or opt for alternatives.o Potential for som

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1. **全球汽车市场受地缘冲突冲击**:霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭导致石油、LNG等供应短缺,推高燃料及原材料成本(氦气、铝等供应受限),引发通胀和消费者信心下降,影响全球轻型车产量预测(2032年预计1810万辆)。 2. **美国关税政策调整**:对欧盟、日韩等地区进口轻型车征收15%关税,对中国等征收25%关税,推高美国车价(MSRP上涨),叠加高利率抑制需求,2026年美国轻型车销量预计1600万辆。 3. **电动化趋势分化**:中国BEV占比持续领先(2035年74%),美国和欧洲增速放缓(2035年分别为41%、23%),北美BEV产量占比2030年仅11%(180万辆)。 4. **供应链与区域化**:北美生产受关税和伊朗战争风险影响,车企延长ICE车型生命周期,短期内大规模本土化生产不现实。
**油价如何影响车市?** **关税战下车企何去何从?** **电动车销量何时爆发?**
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