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美国农业部(USDA):2026印度咖啡产业年度报告(中译版)(12页).pdf

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1、 THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Date:May 12,2026 Report Number:IN2026-0026 Report Name:Coffee Annual Country:India Post:New Delhi Report Ca

2、tegory:Coffee Prepared By:Dhruv Sood Approved By:Nicole Podesta Report Highlights:FAS Mumbai forecasts Indias MY 2026/27 coffee production(Oct/Sep)at 6.14 million 60-kilgoram(kg)bags.Yields,particularly for Arabica,are expected to come under pressure due to excessive rainfall in January and February

3、 followed by an extended dry spell during the critical flowering and fruiting stage.Farmgate prices for Arabica and Robusta have declined by 16 percent and 11 percent respectively since October.Despite this change,prices remain at a premium to other origins,though further moderation is expected.The

4、decline in prices is being driven by expectations of higher output in key producing countries and elevated domestic stock levels.Domestic consumption is projected to rise to 1.58 million 60-kg bags,supported by strong demand for soluble coffee.Exports are forecast to increase to 6.2 million 60-kg ba

5、gs,supported by a higher exportable surplus and the recent implementation of free trade agreements,which are expected to enhance value-added coffee exports.Production,Supply and Distribution Coffee,Green 2024/2025 2025/2026 2026/2027 Market Year Begins Oct 2024 Oct 2025 Oct 2026 India USDA Official

6、New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted(1000 HA)475 475 -475 -475 Area Harvested(1000 HA)434 436 -435 -429 Bearing Trees(MILLION TREES)549 549 -550 -549 Non-Bearing Trees(MILLION TREES)96 96 -95 -96 Total Tree Population(MILLION TREES)645 645 -645 -645 Beginning Stocks(10

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1. **产量预测**:印度2026/27咖啡产量预计614万袋(36.84万吨),其中阿拉比卡156万袋,罗布斯塔458万袋,受降雨异常和高温影响。 2. **种植与面积**:种植面积47.5万公顷,收获面积42.9万公顷,因天气和老龄化树木略降。 3. **消费与出口**:国内消费158万袋(增溶咖啡需求驱动),出口622万袋(受益自贸协定和出口盈余)。 4. **价格与库存**:农场价格较10月降16%(阿拉比卡)和11%(罗布斯塔),但仍溢价;库存高企(1.5万-1.7万吨)。 5. **贸易政策**:印英、印欧自贸协定推动高附加值咖啡出口,关税减免提升竞争力。
**咖啡产量为何降?** **印度咖啡出口增?** **咖啡价格会跌吗?**
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