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1、1CBRE RESEARCH 2026 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentAustralian Retail OutlookUpdate header text All content layouts within the template are references and Australian Shopping CentresCBRE RESEARCHIntelligent InvestmentMay 2026ReportInsights2CBRE RESEARCH 2026 CBRE,INC.Intelligent InvestmentAustralian

2、Retail OutlookUpdate header text Australian Shopping Centres OutlookBooming spend CBRE forecast retail sales will grow to$530bn by end of the decade(+55%through the 2020s).A triple boost of population growth,jobs growth and income growth will help to grow the retail base.Look good,feel good and trav

3、el well we estimate these categories have taken an extra 8%share of wallet over the past 20 years.More defensive94%of shopping centres(Regional and Sub-regional)have at least two daily needs supermarkets.New variety of specialty with large floorplate is replacing department stores.We see e-commerce

4、growing from 14.6%in 2025 to 16.7%by 2029.Omni-channel click and collect/return facilities justify physical presence.Rents rebased,can re-grow For retailers,occupancy cost ratios(OCR)are lower than pre 2020 levels.This is particularly the case for Fashion and Services tenants.We see scope for rents

5、to grow at mid-single digits.Residential upside Expansion or re-development into mixed use,incorporating residential offers valuable optionality,in our view.Centres located on larger sites,close to transport and in areas where residential rents are high,may be early candidates for mixed use re-devel

6、opment.Supply constrained CBRE estimate 0.7m sqm of future shopping centre supply over 2026-2028,primarily neighbourhood centres.Recent geopolitical events add 18%to construction costs,widening the chasm between rent and cost to build.Nearly 60%of shopping centres exhibit sub 5%vacancy.This is parti