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纽约市审计长办公室:2025纽约市经济与财政状况报告(中译版)(132页).pdf

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1、 1 The State of the Citys Economy and Finances BUREAU OF BUDGET December 15,2025 1 Centre Street,New York,NY 10007 (212)669-3916 ptroller.nyc.gov Office of the New York City Comptroller Brad Lander 1 Brad Lander Comptroller Executive Deputy Comptroller for Budget and Finance Francesco Brindisi Deput

2、y Comptroller for Budget Krista Olson Senior Director,Budget Oversight Elizabeth Brown Chief Economist Jonathan Siegel Report Coordinator Kettly Bastien Director,Tax Policy&Revenue Analysis Yaw Owusu-Ansah Director,Budget Analysis&Research Krzysztof Haranczyk Director,Cash Analysis Irina Livshits Di

3、rector,Economic Research Jason Bram Bureau of Budget Staff Jovanni Ayala Amber Born Rosa Charles Stephen Corson Nicholas Dodds Aida Farmand Michele Griffin Michael Hecht Dahong Huang Jack Kern Marcia Murphy Kieran Persaud Claire Pozniak Aliyah Sahqani Bailey Schweitzer Andre Vasilyev 2 The State of

4、the Citys Economy and Finances Contents I.Executive Summary.3 II.The State of the Citys Economy.9 Economic Conditions and Forecast,2025 2029.9 Economic and Fiscal Research:2025 In Review.27 III.The State of the Citys Finances.30 The Citys Financial Position.30 The November 2025 Financial Plan,FY 202

5、6 FY 2029.35 The Comptrollers Offices Restated Gaps and Surpluses.37 Revenue Analysis.41 Expenditure Analysis.60 IV.Capital Budget and Financing Program.110 Capital Commitment Plan,FY 2025 FY 2028.110 Financing Program.115 V.Appendix.120 Office of the New York City Comptroller Brad Lander 1 List of

6、Tables Table 1.FY 2026 FY 2029 November Financial Plan.6 Table 2.Plan-to-Plan Changes,November 2025 Plan vs.June 2025 Plan.7 Table 3.Comptrollers Office Restated Gaps.8 Table 4.Forecast of Selected Economic Indicators,Calendar Year Averages,2025 to 2029.10 Table 5.FOMC Members Median Economic Projec

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1. **经济与财政状况**:纽约市2025年经济受特朗普政府政策(如贸易关税、移民限制、联邦削减)影响,增长放缓,就业增长集中在低薪行业(医疗、政府),高薪行业(金融、信息)停滞。 2. **预算缺口**:市审计办公室预计2026财年预算缺口达21.8亿美元(占收入1.8%),2029年可能扩大至123.6亿美元(9.9%),主要因联邦削减(如SNAP、Medicaid)及长期低估成本(如租金援助、加班费)。 3. **关键风险**: - 联邦政策冲击:OBBBA法案削减SNAP和Medicaid funding,州政府可能缩减 Essential Plan,增加未投保人数。 - 隐性成本:租金援助2026年需额外7.95亿美元,儿童保育、特殊教育等长期低估成本年均超56亿美元。 - 债务与资本:MTA资本承诺缺口12亿美元,长期储备未增长,财政韧性不足。 4. **经济亮点**:华尔街利润创纪录(2025年前三季度利润482亿美元),证券业奖金池预计达496.8亿美元,支撑个人所得税收入。
纽约财政危机? 经济增长放缓? 财政缺口有多大?
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