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澳大利亚能源监管局(AER):2026澳大利亚批发天然气储量价格假设分析报告(英文版)(15页).pdf

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1、 OFFICIAL SENSITIVE Wholesale gas reserves price assumption report:Insights into the gas reserves price assumptions reported to the AER covering calendar year 2025 April 2026 Wholesale Gas Reserves Price Assumption Report ii Commonwealth of Australia 2026 This work is copyright.In addition to any us

2、e permitted under the Copyright Act 1968 all material contained within this work is provided under a Creative Commons Attributions 4.0 Australia licence with the exception of:the Commonwealth Coat of Arms the ACCC and AER logos any illustration diagram,photograph or graphic over which the Australian

3、 Competition and Consumer Commission does not hold copyright but which may be part of or contained within this publication.The details of the relevant licence conditions are available on the Creative Commons website as is the full legal code for the CC BY 4.0 AU licence.Important notice The informat

4、ion in this publication is for general guidance only.It does not constitute legal or other professional advice.You should seek legal advice or other professional advice in relation to your particular circumstances.The AER has made every reasonable effort to provide current and accurate information,b

5、ut it does not warrant or make any guarantees about the accuracy,currency or completeness of information in this publication.Parties who wish to re-publish or otherwise use the information in this publication should check the information for currency and accuracy prior to publication.Inquiries about

6、 this publication should be addressed to:Australian Energy Regulator GPO Box 3131 Canberra ACT 2601 Email:aerinquiryaer.gov.au Tel:1300 585 165 AER reference:#31,675,017 Amendment record Version Date Pages 1 15 April 2026 12 Wholesale Gas Reserves Price Assumption Report iii Contents 1 Executive sum

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1. **报告背景**:澳大利亚能源监管局(AER)发布2025年天然气储量价格假设报告,为东海岸天然气储量估计提供价格透明度。 2. **合同储量价格**:2026年合同储量中位价为$11.07/GJ,较2024年下降约7%,反映长期合同价格机制(如CPI、JKM指数)及国际LNG价格波动影响。 3. **非合同储量价格**:2026年中位价$12.03-$12.72/GJ,较2024年微增1%,价格分布收窄(IQR缩小64%),显示市场对未来价格预期趋同。 4. **南北盆地差异**:南部盆地非合同价高于北部,但价差缩小74%(2025年),2028年后因运输成本及供应缺口,价差再度扩大至$2.45/GJ(2030年)。 5. **数据与方法**:基于PRMS分类体系,AER匿名化分析21家运营商的720个合同及700个非合同价格假设,确保商业保密性。
气价趋势如何? 南北价差缩小? 储量价格可信吗?
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