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协力:2026年中国政策展望报告:对跨国企业在华投资、运营风险、市场准入及交易合规的启示(中译版)(33页).pdf

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1、China 2026 Policy OutlookImplications for Investment,Risk,and Market Entryfor China Transactions and OperationsMarch 2026Todays SpeakerKyle FreemanPartner,International Business Advisory Washington,D.C LinkedITraditional ModelDezan Shira&AssociatesIntegrated Pan-Asia ModelOur Services integrated sol

2、utionsTaxLegalAuditAccountingStrategyHRITAccountingTaxLegalAuditStrategyITHRInvestor ResourcesAll publications are available at DSAs online bookstore at Briefing,a subsidiary of Dezan Shira&Associates,publishes business magazines and guides for China,India,Vietnam,Singapore and other key nations in

3、emerging A Asiapedia is a collection of these resources based on the experiences we made on the Agenda1.Background2.2026 Two Sessions2.Government Work Report&2026 Targets3.15th Five-Year PInternal ConcernsProperty MarketConsumer SpendingDeflationary Pressure Industrial OvercapacityLocal Government D

4、ebtPopulation DemographicsExternal ConcernsUS Tariffs&Trade RestrictionsOther Trade FrictionsExternal ConflictsEconomic Concern leading up to 2026 Two SessionsNewl Built Home Prices YoY changeConsumer ConfidenceIndustrial Revenue&Profits YoY change,for enterprises above a designated sizePurchasing M

5、anagers Index(PMI)87.588.487.587.88887.98989.289.698.490.389.590.680859095100105110115120-5.7%-4.8%-4.5%-4.0%-3.5%-3.2%-2.8%-2.5%-2.2%-2.2%-2.4%-2.7%-3.1%-3.2%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%-3.3%-0.3%0.8%1.4%-1.1%-1.8%-1.7%0.9%3.2%1.9%0.1%0.6%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%Business RevenueTotal Profits49.148.650.54949.549

6、.749.349.449.84949.250.149.349484949505051515252PositiveNegativeExpansionContractionExpansionContractionExpansionContractionSource:China Statistics BPrices&InvestmentInflation Rate YoY changeFixed Asset Investment YoY change,2024-2025-0.5%-0.7%-0.1%0.1%0.0%-0.4%-0.3%0.2%0.7%0.8%0.2%1.3%-2%-2%-1%-1%0

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1. **经济目标与挑战**:2026年中国GDP目标4.5%-5%,面临房地产价格下跌、消费信心不足、工业产能过剩、地方债务及人口老龄化等内部压力,以及美对华关税、贸易摩擦等外部风险。 2. **政策重点**:政府工作报告强调“新质生产力”,推动AI、集成电路、生物制造等新兴产业发展;扩大内需,支持线下消费及三四线城市基建;加强绿色低碳转型,协同污染治理与碳减排。 3. **外资政策**:新版《鼓励外商投资产业目录》扩大高科技、绿色领域支持,放宽制造业、医疗等外资限制,新增气候变化咨询等服务类别。 4. **财政支持**:2026年财政赤字率目标4%,通过超长期特别国债(1.3万亿)、地方专项债(4.4万亿)等支持战略产业升级及民生领域。
**中国投资机遇?** **贸易摩擦升级?** **新产业布局?**
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