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美国农业部(USDA):2026加拿大谷物与饲料年度报告(中译版)(28页).pdf

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1、 THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Date:April 28,2026 Report Number:CA2026-0009 Report Name:Grain and Feed Annual Country:Canada Post:Ottawa R

2、eport Category:Grain and Feed Prepared By:Erin Danielson Approved By:Tacarra Birmingham Report Highlights:Production of wheat,corn,barley,and oats is anticipated to decrease six percent from the previous year,falling to 64.07 million metric tons(MMT)in marketing year(MY)2026/27 on an assumption that

3、 total area planted will remain the same at 16.2 million hectares but yields will fall in line with their respective three-year averages.Corn imports in MY 2025/26 are anticipated to increase to 1.9 MMT,up from 1.68 MMT the previous year,primarily due to drought conditions in Ontario and Quebec that

4、 impacted production.Soil moisture conditions in the prairie provinces have improved in March 2025 compared to the same time last year,boosting confidence that the Prairies will avoid a drought year.1 Summary Production of wheat,corn,barley,and oats is anticipated to decrease six percent from the pr

5、evious year,falling to 64.07 million metric tons(MMT)in marketing year(MY)2026/27 on an assumption that total area planted will remain the same at 16.2 million hectares,but yields will fall in line with their respective three-year averages.Posts forecasts incorporate Statistics Canadas early plantin

6、g intentions survey for the 2026 season,which was released on March 5,2026.The data was collected from December 12,2025 to January 16,2026,marking the earliest time planting intentions data has been collected by the agency.The report indicated Canadian farmers intended to plant more canola,soybeans,

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1. **产量预测**:2026/27年度小麦、玉米、大麦、燕麦总产量预计降至6407万吨,同比降6%,因播种面积持平但产量回落至三年均值。 2. **贸易动态**:2025/26年度玉米进口增至190万吨(同比+13%),主因安大略和魁北克干旱;2026/27年总出口预计降5.7%,主因四大谷物出口减少。 3. **小麦详情**:2026/27年小麦产量预计3620万吨(同比-10%),因播种面积减1%至1080万公顷;出口价跌(非杜伦麦259.87美元/吨,同比-4.3%)。 4. **政策影响**:《加拿大-印尼全面经济伙伴协定》(CEPA)将取消小麦、大麦、燕麦关税;安大略省要求汽油64%可再生燃料本土生产,提振玉米工业需求。 5. **库存与消费**:2025/26年小麦库存增至2750万吨(同比+5.9%);2026/27年大麦库存预计降12%,因出口需求强劲。
加拿大小麦产量为何降? 玉米进口为何激增? 干旱如何影响谷物贸易?
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