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美国农业部(USDA):2026印度糖业年度报告(英文版)(12页).pdf

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1、 THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Date:April 29,2026 Report Number:IN2026-0024 Report Name:Sugar Annual Country:India Post:New Delhi Report C

2、ategory:Sugar Prepared By:Shilpita Das,Agricultural Specialist Approved By:Joanna Brown,Agricultural Attach Report Highlights:Indias sugar sector is poised for recovery in marketing year 2026/27 following multiple years of production deficits.Consecutive favorable monsoons have restored critical gro

3、undwater reserves in major producing states,enabling both area expansion and improved yields for this water-intensive crop.For the first time in two years,domestic production is expected to exceed consumption,marking a significant shift in supply dynamics.Indias sugar consumption continues evolving

4、along income-stratified patterns,with commercial and institutional buyers now dominating demand while affluent urban households increasingly shift toward alternative healthy sweeteners.Although total sugar imports are expected to remain steady for MY 2026/27,the expected recovery in production shoul

5、d provide India greater flexibility to meet domestic needs,fulfill international trade obligations,and support its ambitious ethanol blending targets.2 Sugarcane Table 1.India:Sugarcane,Centrifugal,Area in Thousand Hectares;Others,Thousand Metric Tons Sugar Cane for Centrifugal 2024/2025 2025/2026 2

6、026/2027 Market Year Begins Oct 2024 Oct 2025 Oct 2026 India USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post USDA Official New Post Area Planted(1000 HA)5400 5369 0 5850 0 5950 Area Harvested(1000 HA)5400 5369 0 5850 0 5950 Production(1000 MT)418000 435000 0 455000 0 463000 Total Supply(1000 MT)418000

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1. **生产恢复**:印度糖业2026/27年度预计从连续多年生产 deficit 中恢复,甘蔗种植面积达595万公顷,糖产量3360万吨(原值),同比增长12%,因连续 favorable monsoons 补充地下水。 2. **供需转变**:首次两年内产量超消费(3100万吨),商业需求占70%,富裕家庭转向替代甜ener。 3. **贸易动态**:进口持平240万吨,出口预计360万吨(原值),但2025/26年实际出口或低于授权量(因国内价格高企)。 4. **政策影响**:政府维持甘蔗FRP上涨4%,并扩大乙醇生产(允许全甘蔗材料用于乙醇),可能影响糖供应。 5. **价格与库存**:国内糖价坚挺(零售$518/吨),2026/27年末库存预计650万吨,增28%。
**糖业复苏?** **消费新趋势?** **乙醇政策影响?**
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