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华利安(Houlihan Lokey):2026阿联酋基础设施模式:动荡世界中的稳定性估值报告(中译版)(13页).pdf

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1、The UAE Infrastructure Model:Stability in a Volatile WorldA Houlihan Lokey Valuation PerspectiveApril 2026This paper presents Houlihan Lokeys perspective on valuing the UAEs infrastructure assets,drawing upon our deep experience as both a leading valuation provider and a global investment bank.Our a

2、nalysis indicates that applying a generic“regional risk premium”may not be the most effective approach,as it may obscure,rather than reveal,true value.The valuation of these assets requires a nuanced,evidence-based methodology that reflects their specific contractual and operational realities.In an

3、environment of heightened geopolitical uncertainty,the UAEs infrastructure model provides a compelling example of stability,resilience,and strategic planning.01Executive Summary1Our key conclusions are:Resilience Is Structural.The stability of the UAEs core infrastructure is the result of a delibera

4、te framework built on credible sovereign backing,strong institutional counterparties,and reliance on long-term,contractually defined cash flows.Understanding Key Business Drivers Is Essential.We analyze infrastructure through two primary pillars:Discipline Is Paramount.In this environment,a discipli

5、ned valuation process is crucial.The correct question is not whether risk has increased,but how it specifically affects an assets cash flows,financing,and marketability.This requires distinguishing between temporary market sentiment and a permanent change in fundamental value.This paper outlines a f

6、ramework for making that critical distinction.These assets are anchored to regulated,availability-based contracts.Their valuation is driven primarily by domestic fundamentals and contractual mechanics.Domestic Electricity and Water01While more connected to global trade,these assets benefit from thei

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1. **核心结论**:阿联酋基建资产稳定性源于主权信用、制度框架和长期合同现金流,不应简单使用区域风险溢价。 2. **三大支柱**: - **主权信用**:2026年3月S&P维持阿联酋AA/A-1+评级,财政缓冲充足,五年期CDS利差(58bps)低于2022年峰值(74bps)。 - **制度框架**:电力/水务由EWEC、DEWA等机构长期承购,现金流高度可预测。 - **市场准入**:如马斯达2025年发行10亿美元绿色债券(需求超6.6倍),Al Dhafra太阳能项目2026年以5.794%利率完成8.7亿美元融资。 3. **韧性证据**:全球金融危机期间,核心基建指数最大跌幅(-42%)低于大盘(-58.4%);2022年冲突中,全球基建股仅跌1.9%。 4. **估值方法**:需基于合同条款、对手方质量和项目特定风险调整,而非泛化风险溢价。
**阿联酋基建为何稳?** **风险溢价如何误判?** **长期合同如何保值?**
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