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兰德公司:2026无限潜能:“病毒升级”情景启示:通用人工智能 “次日推演” 系列复盘报告(英文版)(25页).pdf

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1、ANTON SHENK,MATT CHESSEN,BARBARA DEL CASTELLO,GREGORY SMITH,RICHARD S.GIRVENInfinite PotentialInsights from the Viral Uplift ScenarioAfter-Action Report from a Sequence of Day After Artificial General Intelligence ExercisesResearch ReportFor more information on this publication,visit www.rand.org/t/

2、RRA4727-1.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure,healthier and more prosperous.RAND is nonprofit,nonpartisan,and committed to the public interest.To learn more about RAND,visit

3、www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior.To help ensure our research and analys

4、is are rigorous,objective,and nonpartisan,we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process;avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training,project screening,and a policy of mandatory disclosure;and pursu

5、e transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations,disclosure of the source of funding of published research,and policies to ensure intellectual independence.For more information,visit www.rand.org/about/research-int

6、egrity.RANDs publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation,Santa Monica,Calif.2026 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s)contained herei

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1. **研究背景**:RAND公司通过10次"Viral Uplift"场景推演,模拟AI意外引发全球疫情及多国竞相研发AI生物武器的危机,探讨美国应对策略。 2. **核心发现**: - **治理分歧**:参与者争论应限制AI模型(如开源模型扩散)还是打击危险行为体,但均认为需双管齐下。 - **防御优先**:所有10次演练均强调"韧性"(而非遏制)是关键,需加速医疗对策(MCM)生产、公私合作及技术反制。 - **中美矛盾**:每次演练均暴露对华合作(共享生物威胁治理)与竞争(AI领导权)的深层张力,无共识。 - **法律缺口**:现有生物武器公约等框架无法应对AI威胁速度,需紧急授权与国际改革。 - **最高优先级**:所有演练一致要求加强生物监测(如AI驱动的实时测序与异常检测)。 3. **参与者**:119名高级官员、分析师及专家,涵盖政府、智库及私营部门。
AI生物危机如何应对? 美国如何准备AGI威胁? AI生物武器风险何在?
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