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德勤(Deloitte):2026年可再生能源展望报告:政策变动下的韧性重构(中译版)(22页).pdf

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1、ARTICLE9-MIN READ29 OCTOBER 2025Deloitte Research Center for Energy&Industrials2026 Renewable Energy Industry OutlookRenewables recalibrate for resilience amid policy shifts2025 has been a challenging year for renewables.The new tax law,commonly referred to as the One BigBeautiful Bill Act(OBBBA),ro

2、lled back many clean energy tax credits and imposed new restrictions,pressuring early-stage wind and solar pipelines.Wind and solar investments in the first half of 2025 fell 18%,to nearly US$35 billion(prior to the enactment of OBBBA),compared to the same period in 2024.1Still,renewables dominated

3、US capacity growth,accounting for 93%of additions(30.2gigawatts)throughSeptember 2025,with solar and storage making up 83%.2Deployment could surge in 2026 as developers shift to safe-harbor projects,while the new Foreign Entity ofConcern(FEOC)sourcing rulesrestrictions targeting entities linked to c

4、overed nations(China,Russia,Iran,and North Korea)through ownership,control,or jurisdictiontake effect.3With only 35%of the pipelineunder construction,renewable starts are expected to accelerate despite supply chain pressures from FEOC andtariffs.Executives may focus on near-term deployment to captur

5、e safe-harbor credits while embedding flexibilitythrough digital tools,artificial intelligence,and resilient supply chains.This 2026 outlook highlights five key trends shaping the year ahead,along with associated risks andopportunities,and actionable strategies:1.Policy shifts:Adapting to a changing

6、 energy landscape2.Storage integration:Delivering clean,firm power on demand3.Capital and operational efficiency:Implementing a leaner,smarter strategy4.Strategic M&A:Attracting capital through platform and mature assets5.Supply chain agility:Prioritizing alternative sourcing and reshoringEnergy&Ind

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1. **政策影响**:2025年《OBBBA法案》削减清洁能源税收抵免,2026年可再生能源装机或降至30-66GW(原54-85GW),开发商加速项目以符合“安全港”资格。 2. **储能需求**:2025年美储能装机37.4GW(+32%),2026年新增19GW,超50%与光伏配套,满足数据中心24/7清洁电力需求。 3. **资本效率**:开发商优先成熟资产及长期PPA项目,通过AI优化运维(如预测维护提升发电20%),加速项目融资。 4. **并购趋势**:2025年前三季度并购额60亿美元(-41%),平台交易激增4.6倍,储能和混合资产受青睐。 5. **供应链韧性**:FEOC规则限制中资,太阳能组件库存35GW,企业转向本土化(如电池联盟承诺2030年100GW产能)及替代技术(如钠离子电池)。
**政策如何变?** **储能需求增?** **供应链韧?**
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