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经济学人智库(EIU):2026年全球贸易展望报告:驾驭波动与贸易保护主义(中译版)(13页).pdf

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1、1 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2026Trade outlook 2026 Navigating volatility and protectionism January 2026Navigating volatility and protectionismTrade outlook 2026Our solutionsCountry AnalysisUnderstand the political,policy and economic outlook.Our Country Analysis service looks at the gl

2、obal dynamics that affect your organisation,enabling you to operate effectively and plan for the future.Financial RiskGain unparalleled insights into the global financial landscape.Combining EIUs market-leading data and country expertise,our rigorous risk-modelling framework enables you to accuratel

3、y identify risks to fiscal sustainability,currency and the banking sector.Operational RiskPlan effectively with EIUs expert analysis and data.From detailed country risk assessments to customisable risk matrices,our service provides you with the tools needed to confidently anticipate and mitigate ris

4、ks to your operations.Speaker BureauStrengthen your strategy and executive knowledge.Book EIUs experts for virtual or in-person events,training sessions,or decision-making meetings.Our briefings offer independent insights on political,economic and policy trends affecting your organisation.Intelligen

5、ce that moves you forwardEconomist Intelligence(EIU)operates at the intersection of macroeconomics and geopolitics,delivering data-led insights that empower financial institutions,corporations and governments to make strategic decisions for the future.Our coverage across 200+markets connects and con

6、textualises global trends and events so that clients are fully informed to take action in a rapidly evolving world.3 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 20263Contact us for more informationLondon Economist Intelligence The Adelphi 1-11 John Adam Street London WC2N 6HT United KingdomTel:+44(0)20

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1. **全球贸易展望**:2026年全球贸易将持续波动,受美国保护主义政策滞后影响,上半年贸易增长将转负,但AI相关需求(如台湾、韩国)将支撑部分科技贸易。 2. **区域动态**: - **北美**:USMCA修订将强化供应链安全审查,墨西哥或成供应链区域化赢家。 - **亚太**:CPTPP扩张、数字贸易协定及双边合作加速,中国和印度推动贸易自由化。 - **中东**:地区紧张局势缓和(如加沙停火)将支持贸易,海湾国家(沙特、阿联酋)吸引外资并深化与亚洲合作。 3. **行业影响**:AI、可再生能源及关键矿物行业的发展将加剧地缘政治分歧,需持续关注。 4. **风险提示**:美国关税政策的不确定性、全球增长放缓及潜在行业关税构成主要风险。
**贸易波动如何?** **关税影响几何?** **AI贸易前景?**
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