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美国农业部(USDA):2026埃塞俄比亚谷物与饲料市场年度报告(中译版)(29页).pdf

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1、 THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Date:April 01,2026 Report Number:ET2026-0002 Report Name:Grain and Feed Annual Country:Ethiopia Post:Addis

2、Ababa Report Category:Grain and Feed Prepared By:Approved By:Sarah Gilleski Report Highlights:Post forecasts Ethiopias wheat production in MY 2026/27 at 7.0 million metric tons(MT),up eight percent from MY 2025/26 on expanded irrigation,broader adoption of improved seed,and continued development of

3、cluster farming and mechanization.Commercial wheat imports are forecast at 1.4 million MT as tight domestic supplies and steady demand continue to drive imports by private traders.2 Executive Summary Ethiopias wheat production continues to increase,supported by expanded irrigation,wider adoption of

4、improved seed,sustained investments in commercial cluster farming and mechanization,and strong government backing.Despite this progress,local wheat supplies remain tight.As a result,millers have increasingly turned to commercial wheat imports from the Black Sea market,which are often favored for the

5、ir competitive prices.Corn production is projected to expand,driven by yield increases,the easing of export restrictions,and greater access to regional markets under the African Continental Free Trade Area(AfCFTA)framework.Similarly,sorghum production is expected to improve with the implementation o

6、f the National Sorghum Development Flagship Program.Barley,particularly malt barley,is also set to rise as both multinational and local brewers and malt factories increase investments,strengthening value-added processing.At the same time,weather related shocks,supply chain disruptions affecting acce

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1. **小麦生产与贸易**:2026/27年度小麦产量预计700万吨(增8%),进口140万吨,因国内供应紧张。 2. **玉米生产与出口**:玉米产量预计1050万吨(增2.9%),出口7.5万吨,受益于非洲自贸协定(AfCFTA)放宽出口限制。 3. **高粱与大麦**:高粱产量410万吨(增5%),大麦250万吨(增4%),大麦进口9万吨,受啤酒业需求驱动。 4. **价格与政策**:国内粮价上涨(小麦零售价涨28%),货币贬值(ETB对USD贬值107%),政府推动国家粮食储备建设。 5. **挑战**:天气冲击、供应链中断、高投入成本及人道主义压力制约生产增长。
**小麦进口激增?** **玉米出口新机遇?** **大麦需求飙升?**
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