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美国农业部(USDA):2026澳大利亚棉花及其制品市场年度报告(中译版)(17页).pdf

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1、 THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report:Required-Public Distribution Date:March 31,2026 Report Number:AS2026-0006 Report Name:Cotton and Products Annual Country:Australia Post:

2、Canberra Report Category:Cotton and Products Prepared By:Zeljko Biki Approved By:Lazaro Sandoval Report Highlights:Australias cotton production for marketing year(MY)2026/27 is forecast to increase modestly to 4.9 million bales,up from an estimated 4.65 million bales in MY 2025/26.This is partly dri

3、ven by the prospect of improved irrigation water availability in northern production regions which is partially offset by reduced water availability in southern areas.Below-average global cotton prices,a strengthening Australian dollar,and the risk of rising input costs are expected to constrain mor

4、e substantial production growth.Exports in MY 2026/27 are forecast to decline to 4.7 million bales,down 23 percent from an estimated 6.1 million bales in MY 2025/26,which was the third-highest export level on record.The decline largely reflects trade timing dynamics rather than a sharp contraction i

5、n underlying production.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Australias cotton production in marketing year(MY)2026/27 is forecast at 4.9 million bales,representing a modest five percent recovery from MY 2025/26,though remaining below recent peak levels.The increase is primarily supported by the prospect of improved i

6、rrigation water availability in northern New South Wales and Queensland.However,this is partially offset by declining irrigation water levels in southern production regions,where below-average rainfall and reduced inflows into irrigation schemes are expected to constrain planting.Planted area is for

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1. **生产预测**:澳大利亚2026/27年度棉花产量预计增至490万包(2025/26年度为465万包),主因北部灌溉水源改善,但南部水源减少及全球低价、澳元升值等因素制约增长。 2. **种植面积**:预计种植面积增至57万公顷(2025/26年为54.9万公顷),灌溉面积扩大,旱地面积稳定。 3. **出口下降**:出口量预计降至470万包(2025/26年为610万包),主因贸易时序差异(2025/26年出口前一年大作物),而非生产锐减。 4. **影响因素**:中东局势推高燃料和化肥成本;澳元升值削弱出口竞争力;南部灌溉水源依赖冬季降雨,但气象预报显示降雨不足。 5. **市场地位**:澳大利亚为全球第三大棉花出口国(占15%),主要出口市场为中国、越南、印度等。
**澳棉产量为何增?** **出口为何骤降?** **水价如何影响种植?**
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