麦肯锡：2026藏于明处：被低估的半导体产业规模研究报告（英文版）-三个皮匠报告

1、January 2026Semiconductors PracticeHiding in plain sight:The underestimated size of the semiconductor industryA new McKinsey analysis suggests that the semiconductor industry is poised for record-breaking growthbut for companies,success will require the right segment-specific strategies.This article

2、 is a collaborative effort by Bill Wiseman,Marc de Jong,and Philipp Pfingstag,with Andreas Jeindl and Klaus Pototzky,representing views from McKinseys Semiconductors Practice.Market analysts may disagree about specific trends and forecasts,but they typically share the same optimistic attitude about

3、the semiconductor market.According to most assessments,the semiconductor industry was valued in the range of$630 billion to$680billion in 2024 and is expected to reach$1 trillion to$1.1 trillion by 2030,largely fueled by the growth of AI and data centers.This viewalthough positivecould be a signific

4、ant underestimation of the semiconductor industrys true worth.Thats because traditional estimates,which are largely based on sales volumes,may partially or completely overlook the value of chips created by OEMs with in-house design capabilities,captive chip designers,and fabless operators(for some a

5、dvanced packaging technologies).This oversight could have meaningful consequences,as these categories are now demonstrating the highest growth rates.Whats more,current analyses often undervalue Chinese semiconductor companies because information on their sales is incomplete or opaque.Accurate value

6、assessments are more important than ever,as AI is expected to push the semiconductor industrys average CAGR well above the 9 percent recorded from 2014 to 2024.To assess semiconductor value more accurately,we analyzed all company types,including those in China.Rather than relying on sales volumes,wh

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