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兰德公司:2026缓解人工智能灾难性危害的法律与政策路径研究报告(英文版)(43页).pdf

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1、SASHA ROMANOSKY,ELINA TREYGER,ELIE ALHAJJARLegal and Policy Approaches to Mitigate Catastrophic Harms from AIResearch ReportFor more information on this publication,visit www.rand.org/t/RRA4266-1.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help ma

2、ke communities throughout the world safer and more secure,healthier and more prosperous.RAND is nonprofit,nonpartisan,and committed to the public interest.To learn more about RAND,visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis

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4、surance process;avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training,project screening,and a policy of mandatory disclosure;and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings

5、 and recommendations,disclosure of the source of funding of published research,and policies to ensure intellectual independence.For more information,visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RANDs publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Published b

6、y the RAND Corporation,Santa Monica,Calif.2026 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s)contained herein are protected by law.This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only.Un

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1. **研究背景与目的**:针对AI可能引发的灾难性危害(如网络攻击、生物武器失控等),研究旨在通过德尔菲法(16名专家)评估法律与政策措施的有效性、可行性和期望性,以降低此类风险概率。 2. **核心发现**: - **最有效措施**:激励发现和披露风险(平均有效性3.6)、自愿安全标准(4.1可行性)及侵权责任(4.0期望性)。 - **最不可行措施**:强制性审计(2.4可行性)、强制性安全标准(2.5可行性)及限制行为者(2.6可行性)。 - **专家态度**:对多数措施持谨慎乐观,认为联邦政府近5-10年全面实施可能性低,州政府或行业自主行动更可行。 3. **局限性**:样本量小(16人),政策分类较宽泛,且未量化AI灾难风险概率。
AI风险如何管控? 哪些政策最有效? AI安全靠什么?
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