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世界贸易组织(WTO):2026全球贸易展望与统计报告(3月刊)(英文版)(44页).pdf

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1、Global Trade Outlookand StatisticsMarch 2026About the WTOThe World Trade Organization is the international body dealing with the global rules of trade between WTO members.Its main function is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly,predictably and freely as possible,with a level playing field for all

2、 its members.DisclaimerThis publication has been prepared under the WTO Secretariats own responsibility.It does not necessarily reflect the positions or opinions of WTO members and is without prejudice to their rights and obligations under the WTO agreements.The opinions expressed and arguments empl

3、oyed herein are not intended to provide any authoritative or legal interpretation of the provisions of the WTO agreements and shall in no way be read or understood to have any legal implications whatsoever.The terms and illustrations used in this publication do not constitute or imply an expression

4、of opinion by the WTO Secretariat concerning the status or boundaries of any territoryAcknowledgementsThis report was prepared under the leadership of Robert Staiger,WTO Chief Economist and Director of the Economic Research and Statistics Division.Lead contributors were Coleman Nee,Barbara DAndrea A

5、drian,Ksenia Koloskova and Marc Auboin.The analytical chapter was prepared by Tomasz Gonciarz and Thomas Verbeet.Additional contributions through statistical production,modelling or drafting were provided by Eddy Bekkers,Michael Blanga-Gubbay,Shradha Bhatia,Lori Chang,Fabio Della Coletta,Florian Ebe

6、rth,Kathryn Lundquist,Yann Marcus,Tho Mbise,Cdric Pene,Donal Smith,Corey To and Dayong Yu.Helen Swain,Anthony Martin and Jean-marie McAdams of the Information and External Relations Division provided valuable support in the editing and production of the report.1Contents1.Executive summary 22.Outlook

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1. **全球贸易增速放缓**:2025年全球商品贸易量增长4.6%,服务贸易增长5.3%;2026年预计分别降至1.9%和4.8%,2027年小幅回升至2.6%和5.1%。 2. **中东冲突影响**:若冲突持续,高油价或使2026年商品贸易增速再降0.5个百分点,服务贸易受运输和旅游冲击可能减少0.7个百分点。 3. **AI贸易驱动**:2025年AI相关商品贸易贡献近半增长,若持续强劲,2026年商品贸易增速或提升0.5个百分点。 4. **区域表现**:亚洲2025年贡献全球71%的商品贸易增长;北美因关税预期前一季度进口激增,但全年增速放缓。 5. **贸易额与GDP**:2025年全球商品贸易额26.26万亿美元(+7%),服务贸易9.56万亿美元(+8%);贸易增速(4.7%)高于GDP增速(2.9%),2026年两者预计均约2.7%。
**贸易增速放缓?** **AI如何影响贸易?** **中东冲突冲击?**
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