当前位置:首页 >英文主页 >中英对照 > 报告详情

兰德公司:2025通用人工智能的五大国家安全难题研究报告(英文版)(19页).pdf

上传人: 1****1 编号:1158017 2026-03-17 19页 364.82KB

下载:

1、JIM MITRE,JOEL B.PREDDArtificial General Intelligences Five Hard National Security ProblemsExpert InsightsPERSPECTIVE ON A TIMELY POLICY ISSUEFebruary 2025For more information on this publication,visit www.rand.org/t/PEA3691-4.About RANDRAND is a research organization that develops solutions to publ

2、ic policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure,healthier and more prosperous.RAND is nonprofit,nonpartisan,and committed to the public interest.To learn more about RAND,visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionmakin

3、g through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior.To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous,objective,and nonpartisan,we subject our research publications to a

4、 robust and exacting quality-assurance process;avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training,project screening,and a policy of mandatory disclosure;and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publi

5、cation of our research findings and recommendations,disclosure of the source of funding of published research,and policies to ensure intellectual independence.For more information,visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.RANDs publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research c

6、lients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation,Santa Monica,Calif.2025 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis publication and trademark(s)contained herein are protected by law.This representation of RAND intellectual property is provide

word格式文档无特别注明外均可编辑修改,预览文件经过压缩,下载原文更清晰!
三个皮匠报告文库所有资源均是客户上传分享,仅供网友学习交流,未经上传用户书面授权,请勿作商用。
1. **五大国家安全难题**:AGI可能带来五项挑战:①“奇迹武器”引发先发优势;②系统性权力转移;③非专家开发大规模杀伤性武器;④拥有自主权的人工实体;⑤战略不稳定性。 2. **技术不确定性**:当前前沿AI模型(如ChatGPT-4、Gemini)训练成本达数亿美元,2027年或超10亿美元,但AGI实现路径、阈值及影响仍高度不确定。 3. **政策建议**:美国需采取适应性策略,包括加强技术领先、制定应急计划、开展情景演练,并平衡经济收益与社会稳定(如劳动力冲击)。 4. **核心数据**:OpenAI的o1模型已显示对齐风险提升,生物合成技术门槛降低,加剧非专家威胁。
AGI威胁何在? 五大难题解析 如何应对AGI?
客服
商务合作
小程序
服务号
折叠