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麦肯锡：2026年中东及北非食杂零售市场状况报告：破解增长悖论（中译版）（16页）.pdf

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1、Retail Practice State of grocery retail MENA 2026:Managing the growth paradoxConsumer confidence in the Middle East and North Africa is rising,but retail momentum is not.Ten trends can help grocers navigate this paradox,gain granular insights,and identify areas for growth.February 2026by Abdellah If

2、tahy,Damian Hattingh,and Gokmen Cigerwith Pauline CarrionThe past year has been one of mixed fortunes for grocers in the Middle East and North Africa(MENA)region.While consumer confidence continues its upward trend from previous years,that optimism has not translated into faster growth.In fact,growt

3、h has slowed over the past year,despite a sharp uptick in new store openings,suggesting that a change of strategy may be required for grocers to succeed in 2026.Our 2024 State of Grocery Retail MENA research highlighted that,after years of declining consumer confidence,the market had turned a corner

4、and our 2025 research confirms it.1 Across the region,consumers are balancing price consciousness and bargain hunting with a willingness to spend more on selected products.Fewer consumers,from both higher-and lower-income groups,were intending to trade down to save money in 2025,compared to 2023 and

5、 2024,and more consumers across the income spectrum expressed an intent to buy high-quality and premium food products(Exhibit 1).Healthy and fresh produce,and food-to-go,were the primary beneficiaries of this trend.However,this willingness to spend has not provided the tailwind for growth that might

6、 have been anticipated.Growth in the formal grocery industry was slow in the five markets included in this study,with the exception of Morocco,where it picked up to 4.7 percent in 2024(Exhibit 2)(see sidebar,About this research).New store openings in Morocco also topped the region with an 11 percent

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1. **增长悖论**：中东和北非（MENA）消费者信心持续上升，但零售业增长放缓，2024年除摩洛哥（增长4.7%）外，其他国家增长低迷（埃及收缩3.1%）。 2. **十大趋势**： - **格式分化**：超市和大型卖场占消费额近90%，顾客满意度低于40%，折扣店增速达20%（CAGR 2021-24）。 - **自有品牌**：超80%消费者认可其价值，但渗透率不足10%（低于土耳其等新兴市场）。 - **电商**：线上食品销售年增超40%，卡塔尔渗透率11.4%，44%消费者计划增加线上购买。 - **健康食品**：低收入群体健康购买意愿上升至52%，但支付溢价意愿低于20%。 - **即食食品**：增速达10%（CAGR 2023-24），年轻群体需求显著。 - **AI与零售媒体**：生成式AI潜在价值141-225亿美元，零售媒体利润率40-50%。 - **并购**：2023-24年零售并购增长160%（CAGR）。 3. **战略建议**：聚焦细分增长、规模化AI技术应用、提升运营效率。
**增长困局何解？** **零售新趋势在哪？** **AI如何赋能零售？**
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