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Management Solutions:2025年第三季度中国宏观经济展望报告(中译版)(13页).pdf

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1、 Management Solutions 2026.All rights reserved.R&DChinaChina outlookoutlook reportreportThird quarter of 2025France Outlook Report2+333China Outlook Report4.Glossary2.Macroeconomic view2.Macroeconomic view3.Banking sector8910115.AppendixIndexThe objective of Chinas quarterly report is to provide a c

2、omprehensive and summarizedoverview of the main indicators of the countrys banking sector,as well as themacroeconomicsituation at the end of each quarter.1.International overview1.International overview44China Outlook Report4Macroeconomic outlookThe Eurozone experienced y-o-y growth of 1.36%.This ra

3、te was lower than in the previous quarter,although itremained above its level a year earlier.Within the bloc,Denmark recorded the highest GDP growth rate,at3.87%.By contrast,Finland was the only country to record negative growth,with GDP contracting by 0.66%.Theregions average consumer price index(C

4、PI)rose to 2.10%relative to the previous quarter.Meanwhile,unemployment across the Eurozone edged down slightly to 6.30%compared to the previous quarter.The UKs GDP grew by 1.26%,continuing the declining trend observed in recent quarters.The unemploymentrate rose to 5.00%,pointing to some cooling in

5、 the labor market,while employment growth slowed to 1.30%.Meanwhile,inflation remained stable,with the CPI reaching 4.10%.In the United States,GDP expanded by 2.33%in 3Q25,marking an increase of 0.25 pared to theprevious quarter.Canada recorded GDP growth of 1.42%,which was lower than in 2Q25.Across

6、 Latin America(1)overall GDP growth reached 2.64%in 3Q25,down from 3.50%in the previous quarter.This slower GDP growthwas driven by a sharp deceleration in Argentina,whose GDP growth eased from 6.78%in 2Q25 to 3.32%in 3Q25,as well as by Mexico,where GDP turned negative.Inflation in the U.S.rose to 2

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1. **全球经济**:2025年第三季度全球增长放缓,IMF预计2026年全球GDP增长3.1%。欧元区增长1.36%,美国2.33%,中国4.8%(延续下行趋势)。 2. **中国宏观**:GDP同比增长4.8%,CPI降至-0.21%(持续通缩),失业率升至5.2%。政策聚焦金融稳定,2026年GDP预计放缓至4.4%。 3. **中国银行业**:贷款增速6.56%(环比降0.18个百分点),存款增速8.68%;不良贷款率1.52%,成本收入比升至31.82%,ROE降至8.18%。 4. **风险与展望**:贸易政策不确定性、地缘 tension及金融压力持续,新兴市场(如亚洲)仍为增长引擎,但分化明显。
**全球增长趋势?** **中国银行业现状?** **通胀走向如何?**
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