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全球商业报告(GBR):2026年秘鲁采矿业报告(PDAC预发版)(中译版)(15页).pdf

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1、PERU MINING2026 PDAC Pre-Release EditionElections This time it feels differentImage courtesy of Knight Pisold Introduction2026 is an election year for Peru,but this years general elec-tions are different.For the first time in more than 30 years,the Congress of the Republic will once again have a bic

2、ameral Parliament,including a Senate together with the Chamber of Deputies.Furthermore,the interviewees that GBR met dur-ing early 2026 did not express the same unease,concern or nervousness about what lies ahead,as in previous election cycles.At the same time,there was no particular optimism ei-the

3、r.Instead,our interviewees were pragmatic.Their hope is that the next government will recognize that mining remains the economic engine of the economy,accounting for 8.5%of Perus GDP.There are a few factors that help explain their pragmatism.First of all,the market and society are quite different fr

4、om the previous political cycle back in 2021:“The market today is very different,and we are seeing investments from mining compa-nies,suppliers,and even competitors.Back in 2021,we were just coming out of the pandemic,and market enthusiasm was very low.Today,even with the political uncertainty,we ar

5、e in a much more positive environment,and there is a stronger belief that this cycle has a long-term foundation,”stated Kai Rothgiesser,general manager at Bosch Peru.The next factor is that Peruvians have become accustomed to political uncertainty.On October 10,2025,President Dina Boluarte,who had p

6、romised to stay in office until 2026 after taking over in 2022(when President Castillo was removed),was unanimously impeachedby Congress for“permanent moral incapacity”.Jos Jer Or,then President of Congress,became Perus seventh president in the past eight years.On 17 February 2026,the Peruvian Congr

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1. **2026年秘鲁矿业选举预期**:矿业从业者对选举持务实态度,认为矿业仍是经济引擎(占GDP 8.5%),政治不确定性未显著影响投资,M&A活动活跃。 2. **生产与项目进展**:2025年铜产量微增1.2%至277万吨,黄金产量略降0.7%;Tía María项目(投资18亿美元)建设进度达25%,预计2027年投产。 3. **投资与就业**:矿业投资近60亿美元,同比增长9-10%;勘探支出增30%,直接就业增40%至28.6万人。 4. **挑战与机遇**:依赖现有矿场扩张(如Antamina、Cerro Verde),缺乏新矿项目;需加速新项目开发以应对全球铜需求;非法黄金出口达120亿美元,亟推《Ley MAPE》正规化法案。 5. **行业信心**:尽管政治碎片化(38个参选组织),但机构稳定性(央行、财政部)和地质禀赋支撑长期前景,并购活动显示市场信心。
选举影响几何? 新矿何在? 挑战何在?
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