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中亚学院:2026中亚区域季度经济监测报告(第十九期)(英文版)(23页).pdf

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1、Quarterly Economic MonitorChief Economist TeamJanuary 2026CAREC InstituteNo.19 CAREC Institute Quarterly Economic Monitor Chief Economist Team January 2026 CAREC Institute Quarterly Economic Monitor January 2026 Page 2 of 21 Disclaimer This 19th issue of the CAREC Institute Economic Monitor was prep

2、ared by the Chief Economist Team,including Elvira Kurmanalieva(summary,trade,and inflation),Yixin Yao(output),Shiliang Lu(outlook),and Jian Zhang(investment),under the guidance and supervision by Kouqing Li.Insert I is contributed by Kakha Gogolashvilli,Insert II by Razia Abdieva,Insert III by Tuvsh

3、intugs Batdelger&Nomun Enkhbold.Special thanks go to Hoe Ee Khor for providing comments and suggestions.The views expressed in this Monitor are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the CAREC Institute,its funding entities,or its Governing Council.The CAREC

4、 Institute does not guarantee accuracy of the data included in this Monitor and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of its use.The terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with the CAREC Institutes official terms.The CAREC Institute accepts no liability or responsibility for any

5、 partys use of this Monitor or for the consequences of any partys reliance on the information or data provided herein.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographical area,or by using country names in the Monitor,the authors did not intend to make any judgment as t

6、o the legal or other status of any territory or area.Boundaries,colors,denominations,or any other information shown on maps do not imply any judgment on the legal status of any territory,or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries,colors,denominations,or information.This Monitor is available

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1. **经济增长**:2025年CAREC地区平均GDP增长5.6%,吉尔吉斯斯坦(10.0%)、塔吉克斯坦(8.2%)、格鲁吉亚(7.7%)增速领先,巴基斯坦(4.2%)和阿塞拜疆(1.3%)滞后。 2. **通胀与政策**:平均通胀降至5.8%,哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦等通过加息抑制通胀,但阿富汗、格鲁吉亚等国通胀上升。 3. **贸易与投资**:能源价格下滑致石油出口国顺差收窄,黄金出口国受益;中国仍是最大FDI来源,但内陆经济体FDI流入下降42%。 4. **展望**:预计2026-2027年增长放缓至4.6%和4.5%,需依赖出口多元化和生产力改革。 5. **专题**:格鲁吉亚增长依赖旅游、移民等临时因素;吉尔吉斯斯坦信贷扩张推高通胀;蒙古“白灾”致2022-2024年牲畜损失1400万头。
**区域增长动力** **通胀压力何在?** **投资趋势如何?**
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