丸红（MARUBENI）：2023年世界经济展望报告（中译版）（58页）.pdf

1、Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.2023 World Economic Outlook 1/23/2023Marubeni Research Institute(Translated from the original Japanese version put out at the end of December 2022(slightly updated)Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserved.General Outline1Marubeni Corporation All Rights Reserv

2、ed.Summary2The forecast for real GDP growth in the global economy in 2023 is+2.4%YoY.Although supply constraints due to the pandemic have now run their course andprice inflation peaks as the impact of the surge in international commodity prices caused by the Ukrainian crisis wears off,reaching the 2

3、%inflation target set bythe U.S.and European central banks will still take time and thus a shift to monetary easing is not expected until 2024 or later.The financial climate remainsrestrained with some risk of recession due to the cumulative effects of monetary tightening and the unlikelihood of the

4、 Ukrainian crisis being resolved by the endof the year.In the U.S.,the labor market remains tight and the financial environment(capital investment)is likely to remain restrained for some time due to upward pressureon wages,while the excess savings accumulated during the pandemic are dissipating with

5、 factors supporting consumption becoming uncertain.Also,in Europe,where energy issues are a deep concern,impacts on energy production and prices have increased the possibility of a recession.Regarding China,uncertainty remains high despite expectations for the implementation of stronger stimulus mea

6、sures against the backdrop of the rapid spreadof Covid and a very sluggish real estate market.In Japan,domestic demand should maintain a certain degree of strength as the country emerges from a delayedrecovery from the Covid pandemic,but a slowdown in overseas economies will likely weigh on the econ