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牛津经济研究院：2026欧盟非法卷烟贸易驱动因素经济评估报告（中译版）（56页）.pdf

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1、JANUARY 2026AN ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF THE DRIVERS OF THE ILLICIT CIGARETTE TRADE IN THE EUABOUT OXFORD ECONOMICSOxford Economics was founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford Universitys business college to provide economic forecasting and modelling toUK companies and financial institution

2、s expanding abroad.Since then,we have become one of the worlds foremost independent global advisory firms,providing reports,forecasts,and analytical tools on more than 200 countries,100industries,and 8,000 cities and regions.Our best-in-class global economic and industry models and analytical tools

3、give us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends andassess their economic,social,and business impact.Headquartered in Oxford,England,with regional centres in New York,London,Frankfurt,and Singapore,OxfordEconomics has offices across the globe in Belfast,Boston,Cape Town,Chicago,Dub

4、ai,Dublin,Hong Kong,Los Angeles,Mexico City,Milan,Paris,Philadelphia,Stockholm,Sydney,Tokyo,and Toronto.We employ over 750 staff,including more than 450professional economists,industry experts,and business editorsone of the largest teams of macroeconomists and thought leadership specialists.Our glob

5、al team is highly skilled in a full range of research techniques and thought leadership capabilities from econometric modelling,scenario framing,and economic impact analysis to market surveys,case studies,expert panels,and web analytics.Oxford Economics is a key adviser to corporate,financial,and go

6、vernment decision-makers and thought leaders.Our worldwide client base now comprises over 3,000 international organisations,including leading multinational companies and financial institutions;key government bodies and trade associations;and top universities,consultancies,and think tanks.An economic

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1. **欧盟非法香烟贸易规模**：2024年欧盟非法香烟消费量达392亿支，占总消费量的9.2%，导致损失税款149亿欧元。 2. **主要驱动因素**：高额消费税（占合法香烟价格的70%-92%）和增值税是核心诱因，犯罪团伙因避税可低价销售，利润空间扩大。 3. **非法贸易类型变化**：假冒香烟占比从2019年的16.5%升至2024年的39%，欧盟内生产比例增加；其他非法渠道（如走私）占比40%。 4. **政策影响**：欧盟拟将最低消费税从€90/千支提至€215（增幅139%），可能缩小成员国间税率差异，但扩大与邻国的价差，加剧非法贸易。 5. **案例对比**：法国因大幅增税（十年涨87%），非法市场份额从15%升至38%；匈牙利和罗马尼亚温和增税，非法份额下降。
欧盟香烟走私规模有多大？ 高税收如何助长非法香烟贸易？ 法国的教训是什么？
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