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牛津经济研究院:2026澳大利亚非法烟草市场治理对策研究报告(中译版)(62页).pdf

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1. **澳大利亚非法烟草市场激增**:2024-25年非法烟草市场份额达50-60%($41亿-$69亿),预计2028-29年将升至89%,导致政府税收损失巨大(2018-19至2028-29年预期缺口$670亿)。 2. **价格差距驱动消费转移**:合法与非法烟草价格差距从$11扩大至$47,非法产品价格涨幅(3.8%/年)远低于合法产品(11.3%/年),71.1%的消费者因低价购买非法烟草。 3. **执法效果有限**:尽管2024-25年查获$46亿逃税烟草,但罚款仅$2760万;关闭300家非法店铺后,合法销售短期回升但长期趋势未改。 4. **政策建议**:降低消费税(如恢复2019年税率)并加强执法(如边境检查、零售商监管),可减少非法消费46.8%,增加税收$31亿(参考加拿大魁北克案例)。
澳洲烟草黑市有多大? 高税收如何助长黑市? 如何遏制非法烟草?
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