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全球南方研究中心:2025加速越南工业转型:成就、挑战与迈向2045愿景的战略路径研究报告(英文版)(32页).pdf

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1、Accelerating Vietnams Industrial TransformationAchievements,Challenges,and Strategic Pathways to Vision 2045Minh Khuong VuProfessor at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy,National University of SingaporeAuthorPlease cite the report as follows:Vu,Minh Khuong.2025.“Accelerating Vietnams Industrial Tr

2、ansformation.”Beijing:Global South Research Center.The views expressed in the report are the authors own and do not necessarily reflect the position of GSRC.SummarySince the launch of the i Mi(Renovation)reform in 1986,Vietnam has deeply integrated into global value chains to drive the rapid growth

3、of export-oriented industrialization.Over four decades,the country has achieved notable development outcomes,including sustained economic growth,declining poverty,structural transformation,infrastructure modernization,and deep global integration.Its power and electronics industries have emerged as e

4、mblematic examples of its industrial progress.In recent years,Vietnam has set the goal of reaching high-income status by 2045 and accelerated the shift of its industrial model from processing and assembly to a knowledge-and innovation-driven growth pattern.This transformation presents both opportuni

5、ties and challenges.On the one hand,the digital revolution offers Vietnam an effective pathway to leapfrog traditional stages of development,and the green transition is emerging as a new engine of competitiveness.Vietnam also benefits from its geographical advantagesbordering China and located at th

6、e heart of ASEAN,its comparative edge in human capital,and a strong legacy of institutional reform.On the other hand,Vietnams productivity lags behind that of regional peers,with its workforce still concentrated in low-productivity sectors.The demographic dividend is narrowing,gradually eroding its

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1. **成就**:越南自1986年革新以来,经济年均增长超6.5%,贫困率从57.5%降至1.6%(1992-2023),电力产量增长55.7倍(1986-2024),出口增长238.5倍。 2. **挑战**:劳动生产率仅为马来西亚的1/3(2023),制造业劳动力占比23.6%但生产力较低,人口红利渐弱,贸易保护主义风险上升(如美国对越加征关税)。 3. **机遇**:数字革命、绿色转型、地缘优势(毗邻中国、位于东盟中心)及人力资本优势。 4. **路径**:构建“发展型国家”,加强AI与数字治理,升级技术产业链,发展智能基础设施,培养未来劳动力,深化国际合作(如CPTPP、RCEP)。
越南如何跃升? 工业转型难在哪? 2045愿景如何实现?
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