瑞再研究院：2023-2024年全球宏观经济与保险市场展望报告（中译版）（42页）.pdf

1、No 6/2022Economic stress reprices risk:global economic and insurance market outlook 2023/2402 Executive summary03 Key takeaways06 Macroeconomic environment and outlook12 A policy tug of war:financial stability and debt sustainability risks19 Insurance market outlook 2023/2434 Alternative economic&in

2、surance scenarios40 Appendix2 Swiss Re Institute sigma No 6/2022 Despite relatively resilient growth this year,we expect the world economy to grow by just 1.7%in real terms next year as inflationary recessions approach major economies.Having last year flagged inflation as the number one immediate ma

3、cro concern,we continue to see upside risk in the next two years and expect it to prove sticky.With it,we see downside risks to growth from higher central bank interest rates.In advanced markets we forecast real GDP growth of just 0.4%in 2023,the lowest since the 1980s outside of the global financia

4、l and COVID-19 crises.In emerging markets,we anticipate substantially lower growth rates than pre-pandemic that will likely feel akin to recession.The higher interest rate environment is repricing risk in financial markets and we see this continuing.We anticipate significant insurance market rate ha

5、rdening in 2023 and potentially some years after.This should ease pressure on the global insurance industry from inflation,natural catastrophe losses and weaker investment results this year.This year we add a fourth dimension to the“3D”set of long-term economic drivers we identified last year:to the

6、 structural trends of divergence,digitalisation and decarbonisation we add debt,and its related risks.The withdrawal of market liquidity as central banks unwind unconventional monetary policies is exposing financial vulnerabilities that have built up over the past decade.Debt is a key concern,specif