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本迪戈银行：2026年澳大利亚农业展望报告（英文版）（31页）.pdf

上传人： 1****1 编号：1091576 2026-01-28 31页 3.04MB

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1、2026Australian AgricultureOutlookContentsExecutive summary.3Economic outlook.5Cattle.6Cropping.9Dairy.14Horticulture.17Sheep.22Wool.25Climate and carbon.28Bendigo Banks Australian Agriculture Outlook 2026 report provides an in-depth perspective on supply,demand,and price outlooks for six of Australi

2、as major agricultural commodities.By analysing historical trends and considering future scenarios,the Outlook presents a detailed view on what lies ahead for Australian farmers to help them make informed business decisions.The next six months for Australian agriculture will be impacted by two key fa

3、ctors,seasonal conditions and the economic environment,both of which have the capacity to significantly benefit or hamper the industry as we move through the first half of 2026.The past 12 months have presented a broad mix of seasonal conditions across the country,with some areas benefitting from fa

4、vourable rainfall,while others have contended with drought conditions.A dry start across the southeast and parts of Western Australia initially raised concerns for this years winter crop,although a favourable winter period helped improve the outlook considerably.However,dry conditions across the sou

5、theast in spring have resulted in a large area cut for hay,while rainfall in October has helped finish some of the later sown crops.From a livestock perspective,the northern regions have benefitted from timely rainfall and strong feed availability,while dry conditions across the southern regions hav

6、e resulted in elevated feed costs and reduced production.The current forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology is tipping a relatively even chance of above or below median rainfall from January to March in the eastern states,while Western Australia is more likely to see drier conditions.This is paired

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1. **经济与气候**：2026年澳大利亚农业受季节条件和经济环境影响，东部降雨概率均等，西部偏干，全国气温中位数以上，土壤干燥风险高。 2. **贸易环境**：全球贸易波动（如美中关税冲突）影响出口，澳农业出口占比超2/3，红肉需求受支持，谷物需求或受冲击。 3. **核心品类展望**： - ** cattle**：牛肉出口需求强劲（2025年增15%），价格稳定，但巴西竞争加剧。 - ** cropping**：冬作物产量预计6230万吨（历史第三），小麦短期承压，大麦和油菜籽出口支撑价格。 - ** dairy**：牛奶产量降1-2%（约82亿升），全球供应增长致奶价保守。 - ** horticulture**：果蔬供应高，出口需求略降，灌溉成本推高压力。 - ** sheep/wool**：供应紧张，价格延续涨势。 4. **经济指标**：澳元走强或削弱出口竞争力，通胀率2.7-2.8%，现金利率或降至3.35%。
牛价会涨吗？ 粮食出口如何？ 奶价走势怎样？
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