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世界银行(WBG):2026年全球经济展望报告(1月刊)(中译版)(180页).pdf

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1、A World Bank Group Flagship ReportGlobal Economic Prospects JANUARY 2026Global Economic Prospects JANUARY 2026 Global Economic Prospects The text of this advance edition is a work in progress for the forthcoming report Global Economic Prospects,January 2026(doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-2267-4).A PDF of th

2、e final book,once published,will be available at https:/openknowledge.worldbank.org/and http:/documents.worldbank.org/,and print copies can be ordered at .Please use the final version of the report for citation,reproduction,and adaptation purposes.2026 International Bank for Reconstruction and Devel

3、opment/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433 Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily r

4、eflect the views of The World Bank,its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy,completeness,or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors,omissions,or discrepancies in the informat

5、ion,or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information,methods,processes,or conclusions set forth.The boundaries,colors,denominations,links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of

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1. **全球经济韧性**:2025年全球GDP增长2.7%,超预期,但复苏不均衡;近90%发达经济体人均收入超疫情前,超1/4新兴市场和发展中经济体(EMDEs)仍低于2019年水平。 2. **增长放缓**:2026年全球增长预计降至2.6%,主因贸易增长减弱(企业减少库存积累、关税影响加剧)及主要经济体需求放缓。 3. **通胀与金融**:全球通胀持续回落,金融条件因风险偏好增强和美联储宽松而改善,EMDEs资本流入增加。 4. **区域分化**:中国2025年增长4.9%(财政刺激和非美市场支撑),低收入国家及冲突地区面临严峻挑战。 5. **政策挑战**:EMDEs需通过贸易多元化、加强财政框架和结构性改革提振投资与就业,以应对债务高企(55年最高)和贸易紧张局势。
全球增长放缓? 贸易战影响几何? 新兴经济何去何从?
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