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截至2026.02，标普中小盘估值仍显著低于大盘
截至2026.02，标普中小盘估值仍显著低于大盘
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专题报告：历史上四轮科技股泡沫回顾与启示-260223（73页）.pdf
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AI浪潮1→N阶段末标普500底部位置（假设2026年中）测算
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行业数据
2025-12-30
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中证500与标普500行业分布对比
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行业数据
2023-04-18
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中证500与标普500行业分布对比
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行业数据
2023-03-14
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标普500及其子指数在营收中的占比
5qC55o2u5Zu+54mH5Lit55qE5pWw5o2u77yM55Sf5oiQ55qE6KGo5qC85aaC5LiL77yaCgp8IOi0ueeUqOexu+WeiyAgICAgICAgIHwg5qCH5pmuNTAw77yI5Y+K5a2Q5oyH5pWw77yJIHwg5YW25LuW5qCH5pmu5oyH5pWwIHwKfC0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS18Cnwg6K6i6ZiF6LS555SoICAgICAgICAgfCA3My4zJSAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwgMjYuNyUgICAgICAgIHwKfCDln7rkuo7otYTkuqfop4TmqKHnmoTotLnnlKggfCA3My43JSAgICAgICAgICAgICAgIHwgMjYuMyUgICAgICAgIHwKCui1hOaWmeadpea6kO+8mlNQR0notKLmiqXvvIzkuK3kv6Hor4HliLjnoJTnqbbpg6jmtYvnrpc=
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行业数据
2022-09-08
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标普500中消费相关标的市盈率中位数
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应对美股科技股潜在泡沫的第二种对冲策略是增配美股中小盘：（1）盈利：2026年中小盘盈利增速或优于大盘。2022年以来美股小盘明显跑输大盘，一方面源于美联储加息周期启动下，小企业受冲击幅度明显大于大型企业，另一方面大盘股中科技股占比较高，更受益于 AI行情。但 2024年以来小盘股盈利增速止跌回升，到 25Q3 单季度利润增速已超过大盘。按市场预期，2026年标普500、标普中盘 400、标普小盘 600的净利润增速分别为 14%、19.1%、14.9%，中小盘或超过大盘，主要受益于美联储降息周期延续+大美丽法案落地及关税政策的持续松动；（2）估值：中小盘股的估值处于低位。截至 2月初，标普 500、标普中盘 400、标普小盘 600的远期估值分别为 25.5X、20.5X、18.5X，中小盘估值相对偏低。往后看，在大盘集中度及估值处于历史偏高水位背景下，美股再平衡下小盘股的配置价值有望持续凸显。
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专题报告：历史上四轮科技股泡沫回顾与启示-260223（73页）.pdf
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