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实物商品网上零售额占社零总额比重 (%)

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所属报告：

CMF：中国宏观经济分析与预测报告（2025-2026）-奋力迈向“十五五”的中国宏观经济（147页）.pdf

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因此，“十五五”围绕新质生产力来统摄高质量发展，既是一条技术一产业层面的转型主线，更是一条宏观经济治理逻辑重构的主线：通过在目标体系、政策工具、制度安排和考核评价中嵌入对创新质量、结构升级、绿色效益和安全韧性的权重调整，使整个发展逻辑真正从“以数量扩张为主”转向“以质量提升为核”，从而为2035年乃至更长远的中国式现代化奠定一个更具竞争力、更具韧性的生产力基础。 1、综合实力持续跃升：超大规模市场与完整产业体系优势巩固 “十五五”时期研判国内发展条件，首先要看到中国综合国力已经跃升到新的量级，超大规模市场与完整现代工业体系，构成我国在未来一段时期内最重要的“基本盘”和“压舱石”。一方面，经济总量持续扩张，为“十五五”提供了更高起点。2024年我国国内生产总值达到134.9万亿元，同比增长5.0%, 在复杂内外环境下完成了“5%左右”的年度目标，继续稳居世界第二大经济体。按购买力平价计算，我国经济总量占世界比重已接近五分之一，IMF数据显示步上升。超大规模市场优势进一步巩固并持续释放。从需求侧看，2024年社会消费品零售总额超过48万亿元，同比增长3.5%，其中服务消费、线上消费保持较快增长，全国网上零售额超过15万亿元、实物商品网上零售额占社零总额空间结构和城市体系方面，城镇化进入中后期爬坡阶段，为超大规模市场提供了更高层级的载体支撑。2024年常住人口城镇化率已达67.0%，比 2020年提高近4个百分点，城市数量达到近700座，其中常住人口500万以上特大城市和1000万以上超大城市数量持续增加。国务院预计，今后五年常住人口城镇

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