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中国金属冶炼企业产能利用率维持周期性高位

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所属报告：

【东兴证券】金属行业2026年度展望（Ⅲ）：弱供给周期下的行业配置属性再探讨—小金属板块估值及收益弹性有望释放-251218（45页）.pdf

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10 月，全球黄金及铜勘探预算分别增加+6.02 亿美元及+0.65 亿美元，但全球锂及镍勘探预算则分别下降 5.16亿美元及 1.98 亿美元。基于我们持续跟踪的数据分析，2023 年及 2024 年全球黄金勘探项目资本投入出现阶段性下滑（23 年全球黄金项目钻孔数量-36%，24 年全球黄金勘探投入-7%至 55.5 亿美元），2025 年黄金勘探再投入则反映了金价上涨对矿山企业现金流及利润流的有效改善，同时也显示资本市场环境优化推动初级矿业公司实际融资能力的回升（至 25M10 全球黄金 PAI 指数+24%）。此外，尽管 2024 年全球铜矿项目+2%至 32 亿美元，但资金项目投入的分化却显示远期铜供给可能面临的刚性状态（绿地项目-9%但在产项目+12%）；而 2025 年铜项目资金的持续性投入则凸显远期铜需求持续拓展的预期及供应可能出现短缺的担忧（加大上游勘探投入以保证长期资源储备）。另一方面，周期性的数据显示全球锂镍市场的中期供给压力略显弱化。尽管 2024 年锂、钴、镍三种金属勘察总投入在 2023 年（+42%至 17.04 亿美元，历史最高）及 2024年（16.97 亿美元，占全球矿业勘探总投入约 14%）维持强烈扩张（其中 24 年锂矿勘探投入+2.55 亿美元至11.1 亿美元，占三种能源金属总支出比例 65%），但 2025 年全球锂矿及镍矿勘探投入却出现明显回落，充分显示了品种价格弱化对项目经济可行性的实质性利空影响（预期回报率下滑令融资难度增加），导致相关矿企优先提升在产项目的运营效率（优化棕地项目）及通过投入低成本项目来替换高风险的勘探投入。矿业项目上游数据的变化意味着后期不同品种间矿端供给弹性的分化，暗示全球贵金属及工业金属的供给强刚性特征在远期或有所优化，而能源金属供给的强增速预期或有所弱化。

行业数据原图定位