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康泰生物人二倍体狂犬病疫苗收入测算

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所属报告：

康泰生物-深度报告：品种迭代平台占优-220619（19页）.pdf

打包全文图表

人二倍体狂犬疫苗：预计 2023 年开始贡献收入，增长来自于二倍体疫苗占比&市占率提升。根据公司公告，公司冻干人用狂犬病疫苗（人二倍体细胞）已申请药品注册批件，已于 2022 年 3 月完成注册现场检查。根据 CDE、中检院数据分析，市场容量及占比：根[table_page] 康泰生物(300601)深度报告据康华生物年报，2021 年国内人二倍体狂犬疫苗销售额 12.6 亿元、同比增长 26.5%、对应销售 84 万人份；假设 2021 年成大生物狂犬疫苗批签发量占全国批签发量的 45-55%（此处暂不考虑人二倍体狂苗的批签发量），2021 年全国狂犬疫苗批签发 1800-2200 万人份，对应市场容量约 60-75 亿元。以此估计，2021 年狂犬疫苗总市场容量在 75-90 亿元，其中人二倍体狂苗销售额占比约 14-17%、批签发人份占比约 3.5-4.5%。竞争格局及上市情况：截至 2022 年 6 月，除了康华生物人二倍体狂犬疫苗已上市外，国内人二倍体狂犬病疫苗处于临床后期的公司包括康泰生物、智飞生物（2022 年 1 月收到三期临床试验总结报告）、成大生物（临床一期招募中、临床三期尚未招募）、成都所（冻干人用狂犬病疫苗(2BS 细胞)处于临床三期），我们估计 2023-2024 年康泰生物人二倍体狂犬疫苗有望上市销售，2024-2025 年智飞生物人二倍体狂犬疫苗可能上市销售，带动 2023-2025年国内人二倍体狂犬疫苗接种人数占比明显提升（假设从 2021 年的 4%提升至 2025 年的17%）。在这样的背景下，我们认为公司狂犬疫苗销售额增长来自于人二倍体疫苗接种率提升+公司市占率提升。

行业数据原图定位