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市场观点与四中全会“十五五”增量政策预期差

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所属报告：

港股市场周度更新：十五五超预期+中美缓和+美联储宽松预期港股由抑转扬-251027（18页）.pdf

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图 1：市场观点与四中全会“十五五”增量政策预期差 .................................................................................................. 3 图 2：近期港股行业与指数推荐 ...................................................................................................................................... 4 图 3：港股主要市场指数周度涨跌幅 ............................................................................................................................... 5 图 4：恒生指数分行业绝对回报（根据过去一周回报排序） ........................................................................................... 5 图 5：港股成交额 ............................................................................................................................................................ 6 图 6：恒生指数 RSI 指标 ................................................................................................................................................ 6 图 7：恒生科技 RSI 指标 ................................................................................................................................................ 6 图 8：香港本地 ETF 周度净流入（亿港元） ................................................................................................................... 7 图 9：海外跟踪中国资产 ETF ......................................................................................................................................... 7 图 10：港股通(南下)净流入 ............................................................................................................................................. 8 图 11：港股通(南下)成交额 ............................................................................................................................................. 8 图 12：近期南向资金分行业流入 .................................................................................................................................... 8 图 13：恒生指数市盈率区间（现值 12.6 倍，三年中值 9 倍，8 年均值 10.5 倍） ......................................................... 9 图 14：MSCI 中国指数市盈率区间（现值 14.2 倍，三年中值 10.3 倍，8 年均值 12.1 倍） .......................................... 9 图 15：港股月度融资需求 ............................................................................................................................................... 9 图 16：重要股东增减持 ................................................................................................................................................. 10 图 17：港股限售解禁规模 ............................................................................................................................................. 10 图 18：香港 HIBOR 利率 ................................................................................................................................................ 10 图 19：美元/港元汇率 ................................................................................................................................................... 10 图 20：美国国债收益率 ................................................................................................................................................. 11 图 21：隔夜逆回购使用规模 ......................................................................................................................................... 11 图 22：担保隔夜融资利率 SOFR -超额准备金利率（IORB）及利差 ............................................................................ 11 图 23：三个月国库券利率-OIS 利差 ............................................................................................................................. 11 2025 年 10 月 27 日（星期一）市场观点与后市展望 1、市场观点：三大边际利好，支撑港股逐步上行我们在四季度策略报告中就旗帜鲜明地指出，四中全会有望释放诸多增量政策，并对港股市场形成边际利好，是支持市场由震荡转向上行的重要驱动力之一。上周四，中共第二十届四中全会圆满闭幕，“十五五”规划纲要建议远超市场预期（详见招证国际研报《二十届四中全会解读：供给与需求并重，促进中国经济转型，迈向中等发达国家》）。我们认为，本次会议主要有 5 大方面超预期的利好：1）主基调更加务实，更加严肃地明确了发展中面临的问题，经济建设重回中心。市场基于“反腐”运动和“共同富裕”的表述，以及国际地缘政治环境，担心"政治＞经济、国家安全>经济发展"；但会议明确增加"坚持以经济建设为中心"之表述，回归实用主义，并明确了发展中面临的挑战和风险。2）产业升级更为紧迫，经济转型目标明确具体，核心指向科技自立自强。市场预期产业政策可能宽泛空洞；但实际上产业升级紧迫性显著提升，经济转型目标更加明确具体，强调科技自立自强。3）需求侧政策重要性显著提升，并更加注重民生保障体系的配套建设。市场此前担心政策局限于供给侧，对需求支持不足；但规划中"大力提升消费"被突出强调，在扩大内需的同时更加注重民生保障配套。 4）市场与政府作用更加平衡，防止资金空转。市场担心政府调控过多干预市场；但会议明确"坚持有效市场和有为政府"，相强结调合宏观调控的有效性，防止资金空转。5）对外开放重要性提升。市场担心在不利的外部局势下可能关起门来搞发展；但规划将高水平对外开放从第 9 位跃升至第 5 位，显示拥抱国际市场的决心。

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