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2021年4月起，化工各子行业产成品存货同比增长

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所属报告：

基础化工行业化工2022年度投资策略：“双碳”背景下的化工行业投资方向-211214（37页）.pdf

打包全文图表

进入被动补库存阶段加剧化工行业供需格局的不确定性，建议 2022 年把握结构性机会。一轮完整的库存周期时长在 30-45 个月左右，包括“被动去库-主动补库-被动补库-主动去库”四个阶段。2000 年至 2020 年年初，我国已完成了六轮库存周期。上一轮（第六轮）库存周期开启于 2016 年 7 月，在供给侧改革红利、上游行业产能淘汰出清、房地产及基建投资回暖的背景下，工业企业盈利陆续修复，库存周期进入了主动补库存阶段；此后 2018 年 Q2 后进入被动补库存阶段；2018 年 9 月进入主动去库存阶段；2019 年底，化工行业（为中游行业）库存进入底部区间。2020 年一季度，受 NCP 疫情影响，企业生产与消费需求恢复进程错配，造成工业与制造业库存迅速累积，开启了新一轮（第七轮）库存周期。2020 年 4 月-10 月，库存周期处于被动去库存，我国经济强势复苏；2020 年 11 月起进入主动补库存阶段，并逐步向被动补库存阶段过渡，我国经济或进入过热逐步温和放缓，后向衰退过渡。据国家统计局数据，截至2021 年 10 月，化学原料及化学制品制造业、化学纤维制造业、橡胶和塑料制品业、石油、煤炭及其他燃料加工业的产成品存货分别同比+25.50%、+18.60%、+19.50%、+18.70%，已经是自 2021 年 4 月起的连续 7 个月同比正增长，且增速有逐月增加的态势。这意味着 2022 年化工市场将充满不确定性，站在当前时点上展望 2022 年，我们更建议寻求结构性机会：把握安全边际高、产品终端需求大幅增长或持续复苏、供给端行业格局趋于集中、具备产业护城河、周期景气将迎反转的细分化工子行业的投资机会。

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