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美国历史上重大技术创新时期往往伴随着投机泡沫

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所属报告：

宏观：宏观视角下的AI前景之辩-251105（26页）.pdf

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▪ 90 年代“互联网泡沫”与“去伪存真”。1970-80 年代计算机在美国普及，1995 年开始，互联网通讯产业的迅速扩张，相关行业投资增速明显超过其他内需部门。彼时美国劳动生产率也明显回升，加之同期通胀也较温和，美国经济进入高增长与低通胀的“新经济时代”。股市估值脱离现金流约束，在新经济的叙事下，风险偏好抬升，市场对公司的定价逐步从可验证的盈利与现金流转向单纯的叙事逻辑。宽松的货币政策以及联储对市场的“呵护”形成 Greenspan put，加大了市场的投机，市场参与者预期即使股市下跌或公司出现流动性困境，联储也会快速降息、提供流动性支持，故面对估值泡沫也敢于继续参与。市场在 2000 年 3 月达到高点，此后事件逆风与盈利兑现不足引发泡沫破裂。自 2000 下半年开始，美国企业订单转弱，计算机、软件投资速度也明显回落，叠加“9·11”事件与安然事件对市场信心造成冲击：纳指自 2000 年 3月高点的 5132 跌至 2002 年 10 月 1114 的低点，最大回撤 78%（图表 23）。不过，股市回落并未淹没真正具有核心价值的公司，互联网泡沫的破裂实质是一个“去伪存真”的过程。截至 2004 年，1996 年以来成立的互联网公司中约有 52%不再存在29，但具有核心竞争力的“幸存者”，如亚马逊凭借其存货管理与现金流优势，在经历 95% 的回撤后仍在未来十多年形成规模经济并积累了巨额市值，且泡沫时期建设的大量高速通讯网络、数据库与服务器架构在此之后支持着美国经济与社会的发展。

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