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图表22026年商业部门用电或首度超过居民部门
图表22026年商业部门用电或首度超过居民部门
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所属报告：
【宏观快评】美国“缺电”了吗？-251121（18页）.pdf
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近期美国电价涨幅明显，商业部门电力零售价格
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欧洲政府受能源危机影响对家庭及商业部门补贴金额及占GDP的比重
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2）疫情之后，得益于商业部门用电的快速增长，美国终端用电量再度步入上升通道，近6 年复合增速或在 2%左右，与 1990-2005 年基本持平。根据美国能源信息署（EIA）短期能源展望，预计 2020-2026 年美国终端用电复合增速可达 1.9%，与 1990-2005 年间基本持平，同期，美国商业和交通部门、居民部门、工业部门用电量复合增速分别为 3.2%、0.6%、2.2%。单独看 2026 年，预计终端用电增速达 2.5%，略快于 2025 年的 2.3%，其中，商业和交通部门增速 4.3%、居民部门 0.4%、工业部门 3.3%。值得注意的是，按照EIA 当前估算，2026 年商业和交通部门用电或自 1951 年以来首度超越居民部门（图 2）。
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当前图表所属：
【宏观快评】美国“缺电”了吗？-251121（18页）.pdf
图表9到2029年，美国六大电力运营区域电力需求增长
图表8预计2026年德州和中大西洋地区发电量快速增长
图表7无机组关停情景下，2030年美国各区域平均每年供电中断时长（LOLH）
图表6机组关停情景下，2030年美国各区域平均每年供电中断时长（LOLH）
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