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图表162.2025年利率债呈现熊平行情（%）

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所属报告：

中国银行：2026中国银行个人金融全球资产配置白皮书（162页）.pdf

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债券篇：美债配置价值延续，中债收敛转向震荡 4.1.22026年展望：适度宽松基调延续，资金面预期偏松 2026年，作为“十五五”规划的开局之年，叠加化债进程的持续推进，宏观政策取向的一致性有望强化，货币政策预计延续适度宽松基调，但宽松路径或有所变化，更着眼于促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升。总量上，中长提供直接流动性支持或对阶段流动性产生影响，资金利率波动幅度有望收窄。价格上，2026年仍有降息空间，幅度可能在10～20BP左右，不排除开展非对称式或结构性降息。节奏上，考虑国内政策靠前发力和海外降息预期，上半年尤其是一季度概率相对更大。国内债市：波动总体收敛，利率区间震荡 4.2.1利率债：多空预期扰动，区间震荡为主回顾2025年，利率债总体呈现“M型”震荡，收益率在经历了连续两年的快速下行后转为上行，在资金面、基本面预期以及市场风险偏好的综合影响下，波动区间收窄至30BP左右，资产荒的逻辑弱化。从驱动因素看主要分为三个阶段：第一阶段是2025年1月至3月中旬，主线是资金面收紧及预期变化。2024年末债券收益率的快速下行叠加人民币汇率、债券供给压力，2025年初资金面偏紧。春节后央行暂停国债买卖，10年期国债收益率最高上行30BP至1.90%附近。第二阶段是2025年3月下旬至6月，主线是交易美国“对等关税”对市场的影响。3月下旬资金面转松，“对等关税”政策落地超预期，市场风险偏好快速走低，10年期国债收益率大幅降至1.64%，其间随着谈判达成及降准降息落地收益率小幅回升，后受益于流动性宽松再度回落并维持低位震荡。第三阶段是2025 尤其是长端品种收益率走高，多次接近前期高点。10月央行重启国债买卖和风险情绪回落缓解了利率债压力，但后续做多动能有限，10年期国债收益率围绕1.75%～1.85%区间震荡。

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