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安联(Allianz):2025年社会韧性指数报告:中等韧性陷阱(英文版)(35页).pdf

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1、Allianz Research11 March 2026Allianz Social Resilience Index 2025The Middle-Resilience TrapAllianz Research2Allianz ResearchContent Page 3-4 Executive SummaryPage 5-8 Uneven and polarized:resilience consolidates,slowlyPage 9-12 Energy price shock triggered by conflict in the Middle East will put res

2、ilience gains to the testPage 13-18 Four clusters of social resiliencePage 19-24 Macro-financial and country-risk relevance of social resiliencePage 25-26 Long-term strategies vs.unforeseen disruptionsPage 27-31 Appendix:country ranking and methodology 11 March 2026 In 2025,the Allianz Social Resili

3、ence Index(SRI)records a third consecutive albeit modest improvement,but underlying divergence remains pronounced.The global average rose from 47.4 in 2024 to 47.9(on a 0-100 scale)across 171 economies,driven by lower imported inflation pressures and greater currency stability in Emerging Asia and s

4、everal advanced economies.Firmer governance was another driving force,including institutional stabilization in parts of Emerging Asia and Central Europe.At the same time,weaker social cohesion in the Middle East,Emerging Europe and high-income countries continued to weigh on social resilience.Northe

5、rn European economies lead the ranking,with Finland(1st,84.3),Denmark(2nd,83.8),and Iceland(3rd,81.4)at the top of our index.Germany(8th,78.5),France(13th,74.7),and the UK(18th,72.9)remain strong,while Italy(28th,66.8)and the US(32nd,65.3)ranked lower but stayed in the top third.China(59th,52.5),Ind

6、ia(81st,46.8),Mexico(105th,41.3),and Brazil(112th,40.0)ranked significantly lower,with conflict-affected states like Lebanon(169th,17.7)and South Sudan(171st,11.8)at the bottom.The conflict in the Middle East and the resulting energy inflation will test the strength of social fabrics,particularly in

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1. **全球社会韧性指数(SRI)小幅提升但分化显著**:2025年全球SRI平均分从47.4微升至47.9(0-100分),高收入经济体领先(70.5分),非洲最低(34.4分),区域差距持续扩大。 2. **国家排名与变化**:北欧国家居前(芬兰84.3分、丹麦83.8分),德国(8th,78.5)、法国(13th,74.7)保持强劲;中国(59th,52.5)、印度(81st,46.8)等新兴经济体排名较低。斯里兰卡(+12.7分)、印度(+7.8分)显著改善,巴西(-8.7分)下滑明显。 3. **中东冲突与能源冲击风险**:越南、泰国、摩洛哥等中低韧性国家因高能源进口依赖,易受价格波动冲击,加剧社会压力;欧洲受影响可能大于美国。 4. **长期轨迹与“中韧性陷阱”**:全球呈现四类路径(如罗马尼亚追赶、巴西衰退),部分高收入经济体(如美国、意大利)陷入SRI 65-70分区间,面临政治极化与政策不确定性风险。 5. **韧性对经济与金融的影响**:韧性提升与长期GDP增长正相关(新兴经济体更显著),高韧性国家资本市场更深,韧性恶化常先于主权压力。
社会韧性陷阱是什么? 能源危机如何冲击韧性? 哪国韧性提升最快?
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