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2022年能源危机对金融体系影响的传导路径
2022年能源危机对金融体系影响的传导路径
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所属报告：
宏观深度研究：本轮高油价会引发金融风险吗？-260316（24页）.pdf
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行业数据
2024-12-12
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日本金融体系以间接融资为主
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2024-07-12
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图表6我国金融体系以间接融资为主
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其它
2024-04-19
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图表6我国金融体系以间接融资为主
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2024-01-30
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1991-2005年日本金融体系主要变动
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2023-12-18
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二十世纪以来日本政府针对政策金融体系的部分改革政策
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政策法规
2023-12-18
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二十世纪以来日本政府针对政策金融体系的部分改革政策
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政策法规
2023-12-15
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1991-2005年日本金融体系主要变动
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2023-12-15
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欧洲电价受能源危机影响持续攀升
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2023-11-10
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fCDml6XmnJ8gfCDljbPmnJ/mlLbnm4rvvIjnvo7lhYMv5aSp77yJIHwg5aSp54S25rCU546w6LSn5Lu35qC877yI576O5YWDL+WNg+eri+aWueiLseWwuu+8iSB8CnwtLS0tLS18LS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLXwtLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLS0tLXwKfCAyMDEx5bm0MeaciCB8IDEwMCwwMDAgfCAyMDAsMDAwIHwKfCAyMDEx5bm0MTHmnIggfCAxNTAsMDAwIHwgMTUwLDAwMCB8CnwgMjAxMuW5tDnmnIggfCAyMDAsMDAwIHwgMjUwLDAwMCB8CnwgMjAxM+W5tDfmnIggfCAyNTAsMDAwIHwgMzAwLDAwMCB8CnwgMjAxNOW5tDXmnIggfCAyMDAsMDAwIHwgMjAwLDAwMCB8CnwgMjAxNeW5tDPmnIggfCAxNTAsMDAwIHwgMTAwLDAwMCB8CnwgMjAxNeW5tDEx5pyIIHwgMTAwLDAwMCB8IDEwMCwwMDAgfAp8IDIwMTblubQ55pyIIHwgMTUwLDAwMCB8IDE1MCwwMDAgfAp8IDIwMTflubQ35pyIIHwgMjAwLDAwMCB8IDIwMCwwMDAgfAp8IDIwMTjlubQ15pyIIHwgMTUwLDAwMCB8IDE1MCwwMDAgfAp8IDIwMTnlubQz5pyIIHwgMTAwLDAwMCB8IDEwMCwwMDAgfAp8IDIwMjDlubQx5pyIIHwgMTUwLDAwMCB8IDE1MCwwMDAgfAp8IDIwMjDlubQxMeaciCB8IDI1MCwwMDAgfCAyNTAsMDAwIHwKfCAyMDIx5bm0OeaciCB8IDQ1MCwwMDAgfCA0MDAsMDAwIHwKCui1hOaWmeadpea6kO+8mkNsYXJrc29uc++8jEVJQe+8jOS4reS/oeivgeWIuOeglOeptumDqA==
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从资产类别来看，目前风险较高的私募信贷、高收益债、杠杆贷款等资产面临压力更大。根据我们此前的研究，私募信贷当前仍然处于“出清阶段”，短期可能继续承压，甚至随着中东局势恶化，成为触发金融体系调整的“金丝雀”（参见《茶壶vs 金丝雀》）。2025 年以来，高利率、科技敞口、挤兑风险等多重因素导致私募信 贷持续调 整（图表 42）。随着美国以及全球滞胀风 险的进一步上升，私募信贷出清的压力或进一步加大。私募信贷多为浮动利率，高利率将进一步加大借款人的现金流压力，从而推高违约率。此外，私募信贷对科技敞口较高，利率维持高位也将通过打压科技企业估值，进而加大私募信贷的压力。最后，滞胀风险、高利率、风险情绪承压将加大零售投资者对部分私募信贷的挤兑。高收益债、杠杆贷款等资产也将面临更大压力。高收益债、杠杆贷款等资产在信用风险时面临压力更大，近期已经受到私募信贷的拖累（图表 43），如果能源危机继续恶化，上述资产也将面临更大调整压力，甚至不排除后续传导至投资级信用债市场，从而带来金融体系更加明
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宏观深度研究：本轮高油价会引发金融风险吗？-260316（24页）.pdf
除能源外，其他行业均有下跌，原材料、工业跌幅最大
冲突爆发以来，标普500、道指、纳指分别下跌3.5%、2.6%、
较战前，美元相较欧元、日元分别升值3.5%、2.1%
自冲突爆发以来，5y5y通胀预期相对稳定，仅上行1bp至
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