Housing sales expected to track a steady trajectory; value vs. volume divergence likely to sustain As the residential sector transitions from its cyclical peak towards normalisation,it remains anchored in Fundamental discipline has reshaped the housing landscape, compressing inventory overhang from an average of 3.5- rising household incomes, and ongoing infrastructure upgrades. Crucially, continued expansion in the sales velocity,the equilibrium witnessed in recent years is expected to persist in 2026, keeping the overhang largely commercial office market is expected to have a cascading effect on residential sales. Consequently, range-bound. This signals a healthy, mature market environment rather than one under stress. A defining market shift has been the emergence of a flight-to-quality'trend, creating a pronounced Credit health mirrors this resilience, with the RBI's December 2025 Financial Stability Report citing home loan GNPA at divergence between 'sales volume' and 'sales value. In 2025, while total sales volume moderated by ~8%, sales values grew by ~15%. Looking ahead, unit volumes are likely to remain range-bound, while overall the risk that higher unsecured consumption debt could strain household balance sheets. sales value is anticipated to remain elevated. This outlook is reinforced by Q3 FY2026 earnings commentary from prominent listed developers, who project sales value growth of 10-15% for FY2026, with similar momentum expected in FY20271. Amidst the market's reconfiguration phase, developers are continuing to adopt a highly calibrated, execution-focused strategy. They are aligning new launches with demand realities, rather than speculative expansion, which is likely to keep unsold inventory contained. At the same time, long-term confidence remains evident through sustained land acquisition activity, totalling ~USD 5.5 billion across eport, Reserve Bank of India, December 2025
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2026-07-21
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