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图表282.有机硅下游产品均价（元/吨）

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中国银行：2026中国银行个人金融全球资产配置白皮书（162页）.pdf

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商品篇：黄金长牛不改，商品共振上行 6.4.2.2需求端：结构性分化明显，高端应用支撑增长 2025年国内工业硅需求呈现“传统领域稳增、新能源领域分化、高端领域突破”的格局，需求结构进一步向高附加值领域倾斜。其中，新能源领域方面，需求呈现分化态势。多晶硅领域受行业阶段性库存压力影响，根据SMM 数据显示，2025年多晶硅消费130.57万吨（同比下降25.44%），但N型电池技术普及推动高纯度工业硅（4N级以上）需求占比提升至80%以上，P型（P型PERC电池）产能快速退出市场；有机硅领域受益于新能源汽车、医疗健康等高端应用，高端硅橡胶、硅油产品需求增速超20%。截至2025年底，有机硅和多晶硅合计占工业硅总需求比重约为62.7%，仍为核心需求来源。 6.4.2.3未来展望：2026一2030年绿色低碳主导，长期仍有成长空间结合政策导向、技术演进与下游需求趋势，2026一2030年工业硅行业将进入“存量优化、增量绿色、需求升级”的高质量发展阶段，预计2026一2030年国内工业硅产量440万吨以上并维持5%左右平均增速、消费量预计在460万吨结合出口预计维持在6.5%左右增长。2026一2030年消费量年均复合增速将保持6%～8%，行业长期需求逻辑清晰。从需求长期驱动来看，光伏产业仍将是工业硅主要的需求增长来源。考虑到海外，特别是新兴市场对于绿色能源潜在需求量以及缺口较大，市场空间广泛。光伏硅片等需求预计仍将带动工业硅需求持续推进，预计到2030年，光伏硅料需求将占工业硅总需求的70%以上。

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