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图1螺纹现货价格下降，期货价格上升（元/吨）

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所属报告：

钢铁行业周度更新报告：产量下降有助供需平衡-251123（29页）.pdf

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1.1. 上周钢材价格有升有降，钢材总库环比下降 ........................................ 3 1.2. 钢材表观消费量环比回升，建材成交量均值环比上升 ........................ 4 1.3. 全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率环比下降 .................................................... 5 1.4. 螺纹钢模拟生产利润下降，热卷模拟生产利润下降 ............................ 7 1.5. 美国钢价上升，欧盟钢价持平，日本钢价持平 .................................... 8 2. 原料：铁矿石现货价格上升，焦炭现货价格回升 ....................................... 9 2.1. 铁矿石现货价格上升，期货价格上升；焦炭现货价格回升，期货价格下降 9 2.2. 铁矿石港口库存下降，四大铁矿石生产商总发货量回升................... 10 2.3. 钢厂焦炭库存下降，焦化厂焦炭库存环比下降 .................................. 12 2.4. 钢厂焦煤库存上升，焦化厂焦煤库存环比下降 .................................. 13 3. 炉料：废钢价格持平，硅铁价格下降，取向硅钢价格下降，钒铁价格回升，钛精矿价格下降 .................................................................................................... 14 3.1. 废钢价格持平，普通功率石墨电极价格持平，高功率石墨电极价格持平，超高功率石墨电极价格持平 .................................................................... 14 3.2. 硅铁价格下降，内蒙硅锰价格下降，广西硅锰价格下降................... 15 3.3. 取向硅钢价格持平，无取向硅钢价格持平 .......................................... 16 3.4. 钒铁价格回升，五氧化二钒价格持平 .................................................. 17 3.5. 钛精矿价格下降，钛白粉价格持平，海绵钛价格持平 ...................... 17 4. 特钢及新材料：不锈钢价格下降，工业级碳酸锂价格回升，电池级碳酸锂价格回升 ................................................................................................................ 18 4.1. 不锈钢价格下降，纯镍模式不锈钢吨钢毛利上升，钼铁价格回升 ... 18 4.2. 工业级碳酸锂价格回升，电池级碳酸锂价格回升 .............................. 19 4.3. 氧化镨钕价格回升 .................................................................................. 20 5. 宏观：2025 年 1-10 月粗钢产量同比下降，下游基建、制造业维持走弱，地产降幅环比有所扩大 ........................................................................................ 20 5.1. 粗钢产量累计同比降幅扩大，钢材出口量累计同比增速下降 ........... 20 5.2. 1-10 月基建、制造业仍走弱，房屋新开工、施工、竣工面积累计同比降幅有所扩大 .................................................................................................... 22 6. 投资建议 ........................................................................................................ 26 7. 风险提示 ........................................................................................................ 27 7.1. 供给端收缩不及预期 .............................................................................. 27 7.2. 需求大幅下降 .......................................................................................... 28 1. 钢铁：钢材价格有升有降，总库存环比下降上周上海螺纹钢现货价格环升 50 元/吨至 3230 元/吨，降幅 1.98%；期货价格环升 4 元/吨至 3057 元/吨，涨幅 0.13%。上周热轧卷板现货价格为 3280元/吨，环比持平；期货价格环比升 14 元/吨至 3270 元/吨，涨幅 0.43%。上周上海中板价格降持平；上周冷卷价格环比降 20 元/吨至 3980 元/吨，降幅0.5%；上周线材价格环比升 70 元/吨至 3720 元/吨，涨幅 1.92%。需求和库存符合季节性规律。展望来看，我们认为从供需两方面来看，需求有望逐步触底，继续下降的动力不强；供给端来看，即便不考虑供给政策，目前行业亏损时间已经较长，供给的市场化出清已开始出现，我们预期钢铁基本面有望逐步修复；而若供给政策落地，行业供给的收缩速度更快，行业上行的进展将更快展开。

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