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10月20日-10月24日资金面影响因素（单位：亿元）

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所属报告：

【民生证券】流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题：25超长特别国债06会在2026年续发吗-251021（26页）.pdf

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随着 10 月 11 日特朗普在社交媒体上发文威胁要对中国加征关税，近期市场避险情绪升温，开启新一轮 TACO 交易。当前中美贸易摩擦依然有不确定性叠加2024 年四季度一揽子增量政策推高基数，四季度稳增长的必要性上升，市场对降息预期升温。对于后续降息的看法，我们认为从外部环境来看，当前汇率贬值压力明显减轻、升值压力有所加大，9 月美联储开启新一轮降息周期后中美利差收窄，10 月 28-29 日 FOMC 会议不排除继续降息，我国进一步降息的外部约束减轻；从内部情况来看，当前通胀水平偏低（9 月 CPI 同比-0.3%，主要是猪肉和鲜果价格进一步下跌），对应实际利率偏高，在内需、信贷不足、出口面临外部摩擦的情况下，降息有利于支持稳增长。但需要注意的是，当前存单利率总体提价、商业银行净息差压力偏大，资本市场表现尚可，政策的实际落地需要看到新一轮存款利率调降以及至少要等到新一轮中美经贸磋商之后，预计 10 月 31 日至 11 月 1 日在韩国庆州举行的 APEC 峰会可能是中美谈判的一个窗口。此外， 2025 金融街论坛年会将于 2025 年 10 月 27 日至 30 日召开，会议主题是《创新、变革、重塑下的全球金融发展》，参会单位/人员包括全球 30 多个国家和地区的 400 余位重要嘉宾，包括中国人民银行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽、中国证监会主席吴清等，将是党的二十届四中全会后，经济金融领域首次举办的国家级、国际性论坛。年会将深入学习贯彻全会精神，围绕“十五五”金融改革发展方向、进一步做好金融“五篇大文章”，届时系列金融政策将在年会期间发布。参考过去金融街论坛年会的成果，我们预计不会涉及到具体的货币政策调整。

行业数据原图定位