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快递板块跑输大盘5个百分点，PE处近十年最低分位

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所属报告：

电商快递行业2026年中期投资策略：内修盈利外拓增量-260715（28页）.pdf

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2026年1月至7月，快递（申万）指数从年初约+2.0%持续下行至7月约-5.0%，同期上证指数从约+4.0%回落至约-5.0%，快递板块跑输大盘约5个百分点。估值方面，快递板块PE（TTM）约14.0倍，处于近十年0.7%分位数，板块估值安全边际较高。个股层面，中通快递2026E PE约14.5倍，圆通速递约9.5倍，申通快递约11.6倍，韵达股份约9.8倍，极兔速递约20.9倍。数据来源：Wind、中泰证券研究所

2026年以来快递（申万）指数及上证指数涨跌幅
时间	快递（申万）指数	上证指数
2026/1/1	+2.0%	+4.0%
2026/2/1	+4.0%	+6.0%
2026/3/1	+2.0%	+4.0%
2026/4/1	0.0%	+2.0%
2026/5/1	-2.0%	0.0%
2026/6/1	-4.0%	-4.0%
2026/7/1	-5.0%	-5.0%

快递公司盈利预测与估值（2026/7/14）
证券代码	证券简称	收盘价（元）	PB(MRQ)	EPS（元）			PE
				2025A	2026E	2027E	2025A	2026E	2027E
2057.HK	中通快递-W	164.90	2.1	1.38	13.52	15.09	14.5	12.2	10.9
600233.SH	圆通速递	17.25	1.6	1.26	1.81	2.07	13.7	9.5	8.3
002120.SZ	韵达股份	6.82	0.9	0.41	0.70	0.79	16.6	9.8	8.7
002468.SZ	申通快递	16.57	2.2	0.92	1.43	1.65	18.0	11.6	10.0
1519.HK	极兔速递-W	7.94	3.6	0.16	0.38	0.52	49.1	20.9	15.2

数据来源：Wind、中泰证券研究所

从快递板块的走势与估值来看，可以提炼出三个关键判断：
快递板块跑输大盘约5个百分点。 2026年1-7月，快递（申万）指数从年初+2%持续下行至7月-5%，上证指数同期从+4%回落至-5%。快递板块在1-4月跑输大盘（指数+0% vs 大盘+2%），5月起随大盘同步回调，7月两者均触及-5%的低位。
板块PE处近十年最低分位。快递板块PE（TTM）约14.0倍，处于近十年0.7%分位数，估值安全边际突出。在行业反内卷持续深化、单票收入修复、盈利显著改善的背景下，估值与基本面的背离为板块提供了较高的安全边际和向上弹性。
电商快递2026E PE集中在9.5-14.5倍。中通快递2026E PE约14.5倍，圆通速递约9.5倍，申通快递约11.6倍，韵达股份约9.8倍，极兔速递约20.9倍。通达系快递2026E PE均值约11.4倍，结合Q1单票盈利修复（中通0.219元、圆通0.180元、申通0.069元），估值仍处低位。