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宁夏回族自治区发改委2025年降电价要求

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所属报告：

【信达证券】2026电力行业年度策略报告：电改步入下半场，机遇与挑战并存-251205（40页）.pdf

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如前所述，电力供需格局宽松是现货市场价格下行的直接原因，而其后又隐含能源价格回落和低碳转型加速两点因素。从能源价格表现来看，煤炭供给增长叠加火电需求疲弱的情况或将在 2025 年内持续；从低碳转型的角度来看，2025 年上半年新能源抢装潮超预期，即便下半年投资趋于谨慎，我们预计全年新能源装机同比去年依旧有望实现增长。叠加煤电装机持续投产，电力供需格局有望进一步宽松。同时随着缺电限电情况缓解，下游工商业企业亟待中游让利，2024 年以来各地地方政府降电价诉求再起。2025 年 2 月 26 日，浙江省人民政府办公厅印发《2025 年政府工作报告重点工作责任分解的通知》，提出“2025年将力争全省工商业电价较上年下降 3 分/千瓦时以上”；2025 年 4 月，宁夏回族自治区发改委发布了《关于进一步明确区内火电中长期市场交易价格的通知》，提出“为落实自治区“两会”精神，助力自治区经济稳步增长，结合近期电力市场运行情况和市场主体反映相关诉求，经宁夏电力市场管理委员会审议通过，参考“煤电联动”模式，综合考虑电煤价格及火电企业经营状况，按月暂将火电区内中长期交易电量(含年、月、旬及合同转让交易)度电下调 1.5 分，对应电费按区内市场化用户当月实际用电量比例直接向终端用户(含批发用户、零售用户、电网企业代理购电)疏导”。尽管煤价电价Q3出现反弹，但由于煤价均价仍同比下行，展望 2026 年我们预计电价仍将面临下行压力。但需注意的是，当前我国电力交易结构仍为“年度中长期-月度中长期-现货市场”，其中年度交易锁定主要部分电量。因而当电价持续下行至接近-20%的底部时，电价将获得支撑。同时，2025 年中长期电价高上浮比例的地区电价或将面临补跌风险。

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