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OBBBA的财政影响（2025-2034年）
OBBBA的财政影响（2025-2034年）
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所属报告：
宏观专题：超级宏观周后美国后市展望-250807（16页）.pdf
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2026-2034年，OBBBA对不同入的人均年均享有源的影响
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2026-06-25
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OBBBA法案推迟ITC退坡时间，但新增外国敏感实体限制
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7 月 1 日，在经历了共和党议员倒戈、议员放弃连任、马拉松诵读等戏剧性场面之后，美国国会参议院终于以 51 票赞成、50 票反对的表决结果通过“大而美”税收与支出法案（OBBBA）。根据 CBO 的最新估计，在基准情形之下，OBBBA将在 2034 年之前增加 4.1 万亿美元的借款，其中包括 5.9 万亿美元的减税和支出增加（增加赤字）、2.5 万亿美元的抵消措施（减少赤字），以及超过 7000 亿美元的利息成本。若永久执行，预计该法案将使到 2034 年债务增加超过 5.5 万亿美元。综合来看，OBBBA 通过大规模的减税和支出增加，将在未来十年显著推升 9 / 16 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 美国的财政赤字和债务水平。尽管该法案包含了一些抵消措施，但其净效应仍然是增加赤字和债务；如果临时条款被永久化，其对财政的长期影响将更加严重。
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宏观专题：超级宏观周后美国后市展望-250807（16页）.pdf
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