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全球央行年度购金量（吨）

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所属报告：

2026年宏观经济及大类资产展望：锚定新航向，奋进新征程-251218（33页）.pdf

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截至目前，黄金涨幅显著跑赢大多数大宗商品和权益资产，从短期来看，金价可能出现高位震荡甚至阶段性回调，但我们认为中期牛市基础并未发生改变，主要基于以下几点：1.全球央行持续购金，是黄金中长期牛市的基础支柱。过去三年全球央行购金规模维持在历史高位，增持动机已经从周期性补库转向外汇储备体系的战略调整，尤其是在去美元化、储备多元化趋势加速背景下，黄金因其“无对手方风险”的属性成为各国央行增配的自然选择。即便金价处于历史高位，央行买盘依旧保持韧性，使黄金具备超越传统供需周期的确定性支撑。2.地缘政治风险正从“事件型冲击”转变为“结构性变量”。中东冲突的拉长、俄乌战争的降温停滞、红海航运风险的阶段性复发、以及美国外交政策的不确定性提升，共同塑造了一个更高风险、更难降温的地缘环境。在这种背景下，黄金不再仅是一种短期避险工具，而成为机构投资组合中的长期对冲资产，其需求稳定性显著增强。3.美元信用体系的边际走弱，是推动黄金进入长期牛市的重要中枢变量。如前所述，美国财政赤字持续高企，利息支出占比攀升，再叠加政策的不确定性，使全球储备管理者和大型机构对美元资产的风险溢价判断发生变化。在美元信用锚松动的过程中，黄金作为中立、无违约风险的储备资产，其相对吸引力显著提升，形成对美元体系的天然对冲。4.全球配置型资金流入加速增强了黄金的金融属性。除官方部门外，ETF 资金、养老金、主权财富基金及各类机构均在提高黄金在多资产配置框架中的权重，尤其是在通胀黏性上升、实际利率中枢走低以及全球对冲需求提升的背景下，黄金的组合价值提升明显。配置型资金的入场使得黄金在上行过程中具备更强的趋势黏性和流动性支撑。

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