挪威船级社（DNV）：2025 年德国能源转型展望报告：预测至2050（英文版）（131页）.pdf

1、CCS&HYDROGENELECTRICITY&GAS A national forecast to 2050ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK GERMANY 2025FOREWORDGermany has long been a front runner in the energy transition and has established a national target to achieve a net zero energy economy by 2045.Our investigation finds that Germany will miss this ta

2、rget but by a narrow margin.We forecast that emis-sions will fall by 95%by 2050.That is a very big step towards decarbonization and is largely facilitated by a more than doubling of electricity use across the country in the next 25 years.Electrification brings efficiency benefits,which can be seen i

3、n the energy intensity of the economy(i.e.energy use per unit of GDP),which will almost halve during our forecast period.Perhaps the most startling benefit of the transition ahead for Germany is that by building out domestic renewable generation,including biogas,Germany will advance from a position

4、where it currently imports 70%of its primary energy to a position where its energy system will be just 27%reliant on imports.The big question is whether all these benefits can be achieved at acceptable cost.Given the extraor-dinarily high gas and electricity prices that Germany has endured in the re

5、cent past,there is no small anxiety attached to this question.Our analysis shows the transition is affordable in Germany.Here,I encourage you to read our findings in detail,but our overall conclusion is that German industry will be paying energy prices on par with the rest of Europe throughout our f

6、orecast period.This implies energy costs that are moderately higher than some other world regions,but not to the degree that energy becomes barrier to success:other Draghi elements of competitiveness will be more important.Overall,we forecast that Germany will achieve a very much more sustainable en