瑞士盈丰（EFG International）： 2025年展望报告（英文版）（34页）.pdf

1、OUR TOP 10 THEMES FOR THE YEAR AHEAD Outlook2025Welcome to EFGs Outlook 2025 where we outline our top ten themes for the year ahead and review how well our predictions for 2024 did.It is useful to first begin with a view on the global economy,as that sets the scene for the rest of our thoughts for t

2、he year ahead.Last year our base case was for a soft landing.This did,indeed,occur and we expect economic growth to remain resilient again in 2025.There may still be a number of headwinds which could challenge growth in the first half of the year but these should ease into the second half.Part of th

3、e growth will be driven by the BRICS group as they increase in size and importance.With inflation close to pre-pandemic levels and back within central bank targets,we see a greater focus on the labour market and measures to promote employment.Government budget deficits will remain a challenge around

4、 the world and we will be paying close attention to the US Department of Government Efficiency(DOGE)and whether it will deliver the promised“radical transparency”.The deficit is particularly large in France and there is no sign of stabilisation.French government bond yield spreads have widened over

5、Germany,yet the differential is even higher for Italy.Therefore,we see some areas of opportunity in government bond yield spreads.Elsewhere in fixed income,we believe that yield curves will steepen.Last year we highlighted the potential productivity gains from the advances in artificial intelligence

6、(AI).The adoption of generative AI has been fast,and we think 2025 will be a year in which it becomes mainstream.Increased AI usage,the associated greater use of data centres and ongoing electrification of the consumer,industrial and transport sectors,will push up electricity demand.To meet this nee